Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #6 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
Forecasters:
|
Rookie |
2 |
|
Intern |
1 |
|
Journey |
0 |
|
Senior |
6 |
|
TOT |
9 |
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
55.60 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
ilibov |
Senior |
25 |
126.6 |
-0.746 |
52.7% |
1 |
77.05 |
21.45 |
-0.862 |
43.8% |
3 |
41.95 |
-1.083 |
26.9% |
1 |
1.68 |
-1.035 |
25.6% |
1 |
36.9% |
2.028 |
49.8% |
1 |
ilibov |
|
herb@maws |
Senior |
24 |
151.9 |
-0.612 |
43.2% |
2 |
76.00 |
20.40 |
-0.916 |
46.5% |
1 |
46.00 |
-0.800 |
19.9% |
3 |
1.92 |
-0.607 |
15.0% |
4 |
23.4% |
-0.199 |
-4.9% |
4 |
herb@maws |
|
donsutherland1 |
Chief |
24 |
153.5 |
-0.604 |
42.6% |
3 |
78.55 |
22.95 |
-0.785 |
39.9% |
4 |
43.75 |
-0.957 |
23.8% |
2 |
1.82 |
-0.775 |
19.2% |
3 |
27.9% |
0.539 |
13.2% |
3 |
donsutherland1 |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
27 |
189.5 |
-0.413 |
29.2% |
4 |
76.00 |
20.40 |
-0.916 |
46.5% |
1 |
48.80 |
-0.603 |
15.0% |
4 |
1.81 |
-0.803 |
19.9% |
2 |
22.9% |
-0.290 |
-7.1% |
5 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
TQ |
Senior |
26 |
221.2 |
-0.245 |
17.3% |
5 |
84.30 |
28.70 |
-0.488 |
24.8% |
5 |
57.50 |
0.006 |
-0.1% |
5 |
2.21 |
-0.079 |
1.9% |
5 |
19.9% |
-0.780 |
-19.1% |
8 |
TQ |
|
millersville_bauers |
Rookie |
26 |
222.7 |
-0.237 |
16.8% |
6 |
101.90 |
46.30 |
0.420 |
-21.3% |
6 |
60.10 |
0.188 |
-4.7% |
6 |
2.31 |
0.101 |
-2.5% |
6 |
22.1% |
-0.414 |
-10.2% |
6 |
millersville_bauers |
|
weatherT |
Intern |
25 |
279.5 |
0.063 |
-4.5% |
7 |
112.15 |
56.55 |
0.949 |
-48.2% |
8 |
61.95 |
0.317 |
-7.9% |
7 |
2.48 |
0.399 |
-9.9% |
8 |
31.7% |
1.167 |
28.7% |
2 |
weatherT |
|
Roger Smith |
Rookie |
27 |
281.3 |
0.073 |
-5.1% |
8 |
103.50 |
47.90 |
0.502 |
-25.5% |
7 |
66.10 |
0.608 |
-15.1% |
8 |
2.45 |
0.346 |
-8.5% |
7 |
20.5% |
-0.690 |
-16.9% |
7 |
Roger Smith |
|
Raven |
Senior |
25 |
781.9 |
2.722 |
-192.2% |
9 |
134.40 |
78.80 |
2.096 |
-106.5% |
9 |
90.60 |
2.324 |
-57.8% |
9 |
3.62 |
2.453 |
-60.7% |
9 |
16.4% |
-1.362 |
-33.5% |
9 |
Raven |
|
Forecast
Parameters |
229 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
24 |
127 |
-0.746 |
-192.2% |
1 |
76.00 |
20.40 |
-0.916 |
-106.5% |
1 |
42.0 |
-1.083 |
-57.8% |
1 |
1.68 |
-1.035 |
-60.7% |
1 |
16.4% |
-1.362 |
-33.5% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
27 |
782 |
2.722 |
52.7% |
9 |
134.40 |
78.80 |
2.096 |
46.5% |
9 |
90.6 |
2.324 |
26.9% |
9 |
3.62 |
2.453 |
25.6% |
9 |
36.9% |
2.028 |
49.8% |
9 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
25 |
268 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
93.76 |
38.16 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
57.4 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
2.26 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
24.6% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
25 |
221 |
-0.245 |
17.3% |
5 |
84.30 |
28.70 |
-0.488 |
24.8% |
5 |
57.5 |
0.006 |
-0.1% |
5 |
2.21 |
-0.079 |
1.9% |
5 |
22.9% |
-0.290 |
-7.1% |
5 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
1 |
189 |
1.000 |
70.6% |
2.6 |
19.38 |
19.38 |
1.000 |
50.8% |
2.7 |
14.3 |
1.000 |
24.9% |
2.6 |
0.56 |
1.000 |
24.7% |
2.6 |
6.1% |
1.000 |
24.6% |
2.6 |
STD |
|
|
25% |
25 |
153 |
-0.604 |
-4.5% |
3 |
77.05 |
21.45 |
-0.862 |
-25.5% |
3 |
46.0 |
-0.800 |
-7.9% |
3 |
1.82 |
-0.775 |
-8.5% |
3 |
20.5% |
-0.690 |
-16.9% |
3 |
|
|
|
75% |
26 |
280 |
0.063 |
42.6% |
7 |
103.50 |
47.90 |
0.502 |
43.8% |
7 |
62.0 |
0.317 |
19.9% |
7 |
2.45 |
0.346 |
19.2% |
7 |
27.9% |
0.539 |
13.2% |
7 |
|
|
***************************************************
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank
|
1st
Place
For every inch of snow observed…2.6” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 37% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
2nd
Place
For every inch of snow observed …2.3” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 23% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
3rd Place
For every inch of snow observed …2.34” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 28% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
Honorable Mention
For every inch of snow observed …2.22” was
forecast. Forecast accounted for 23%
of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
Average stations per forecaster: 25
Stations with observed snowfall: 24
Minimum: 76” (Donald Rosenfeld; herb @ maws)
Consensus Median: 84.3”
Maximum: 134“ (Roger Smith)
Observed: 55.6””
Max single station: CON (8.1”)
Shutout: RIC…ORF…RDU
New Daily Records:
None
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
ilibov |
ISP SBY |
0.080 |
|
2 |
TQ |
HYA SBY |
0.077 |
|
3 |
herb@maws |
PHL |
0.042 |
|
3 |
donsutherland1 |
SBY |
0.042 |
|
5 |
Raven |
BDL |
0.040 |
|
6 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0.000 |
|
6 |
millersville_bauers |
|
0.000 |
|
6 |
weatherT |
|
0.000 |
|
6 |
Roger Smith |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
CON BTV ABE MDT IAD DCA |
6 |
0.222 |
|
2 |
ilibov |
CAR PWM ISP ACY SBY |
5 |
0.200 |
|
3 |
herb@maws |
BGR ORH PVD PHL |
4 |
0.167 |
|
3 |
donsutherland1 |
ALB EWR BWI SBY |
4 |
0.167 |
|
5 |
weatherT |
BOS JFK ACY BWI |
4 |
0.160 |
|
6 |
TQ |
HYA SBY |
2 |
0.077 |
|
6 |
millersville_bauers |
BDR ALB |
2 |
0.077 |
|
8 |
Raven |
BDL |
1 |
0.040 |
|
9 |
Roger Smith |
BGM |
1 |
0.037 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Raven |
BGR PWM CON BOS HYA ORH
PVD |
7 |
0.280 |
|
2 |
millersville_bauers |
ACY EWR BWI SBY |
4 |
0.154 |
|
3 |
Roger Smith |
CAR ISP PHL BWI |
4 |
0.148 |
|
4 |
herb@maws |
ALB BGM IAD |
3 |
0.125 |
|
5 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
RIC ORF RDU |
3 |
0.111 |
|
6 |
donsutherland1 |
BDR JFK |
2 |
0.083 |
|
7 |
ilibov |
BTV DCA |
2 |
0.080 |
|
7 |
weatherT |
ABE MDT |
2 |
0.080 |
|
9 |
TQ |
BDL |
1 |
0.038 |
**************************************************************
**************************************************************
Consensus forecast best @ CON…BOS…BDL…ALB
MAX forecast best @ BDR
MAX forecast less than observed @
MIN forecasts best @ CAR…BGR…PWM…BTV…HYA…ORH…ABE…MDT…PHL…ACY…EWR…BWI…IAD…DCA…SBY
MIN forecasts more than observed @ BGR…PWM…BTV…HYA…ABE…MDT…BWI
Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…and METAR bulletins
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
|
10 |
CAR |
2.30 |
11.5 |
|
21 |
BGR |
0.05 |
|
|
13 |
PWM |
1.50 |
25.0 |
|
1 |
CON |
8.10 |
17.2 |
|
18 |
BTV |
0.20 |
|
|
3 |
BOS |
5.30 |
8.2 |
|
21 |
HYA |
0.05 |
|
|
6 |
ORH |
4.70 |
9.6 |
|
12 |
PVD |
1.80 |
10.6 |
|
4 |
BDR |
5.00 |
10.4 |
|
7 |
BDL |
4.20 |
7.8 |
|
2 |
ALB |
5.50 |
19.6 |
|
8 |
BGM |
4.00 |
36.4 |
|
11 |
ISP |
2.10 |
7.5 |
|
5 |
JFK |
4.90 |
10.2 |
|
14 |
ABE |
1.30 |
14.4 |
|
21 |
MDT |
0.05 |
|
|
15 |
PHL |
1.00 |
|
|
17 |
ACY |
0.30 |
|
|
9 |
EWR |
2.60 |
11.3 |
|
19 |
BWI |
0.10 |
|
|
16 |
IAD |
0.40 |
6.7 |
|
19 |
DCA |
0.10 |
|
|
21 |
SBY |
0.05 |
|
|
|
RIC |
-
|
|
|
|
ORF |
-
|
|
|
|
RDU |
- |
|
|
|
TOT |
55.60 |
12.1 |
*******************************
Five-day 5H anomaly height correlations