Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the link to…'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #5 to see the complete station forecast verification table
Forecasters:
|
Rookie |
5 |
|
Intern |
3 |
|
Journey |
2 |
|
Senior |
11 |
|
TOT |
21 |
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
169.45 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
donsutherland1 |
Chief |
27 |
232.5 |
-0.996 |
57.1% |
1 |
185.95 |
16.50 |
-0.492 |
44.3% |
8 |
58.30 |
-1.016 |
32.1% |
3 |
2.16 |
-1.122 |
37.0% |
2 |
77.9% |
1.101 |
37.3% |
1 |
donsutherland1 |
|
wxfox51 |
Rookie |
27 |
260.5 |
-0.905 |
51.9% |
2 |
173.00 |
3.55 |
-0.978 |
88.0% |
2 |
58.05 |
-1.025 |
32.4% |
2 |
2.15 |
-1.130 |
37.2% |
1 |
74.4% |
0.920 |
31.2% |
2 |
wxfox51 |
|
weatherT |
Intern |
26 |
302.4 |
-0.771 |
44.2% |
3 |
138.40 |
31.05 |
0.054 |
-4.8% |
14 |
57.15 |
-1.058 |
33.4% |
1 |
2.20 |
-1.088 |
35.8% |
3 |
73.5% |
0.872 |
29.6% |
3 |
weatherT |
|
Raven |
Senior |
24 |
312.7 |
-0.737 |
42.3% |
4 |
201.20 |
31.75 |
0.080 |
-7.2% |
15 |
68.85 |
-0.627 |
19.8% |
7 |
2.87 |
-0.494 |
16.3% |
8 |
72.8% |
0.839 |
28.4% |
4 |
Raven |
|
wxduff |
Intern |
26 |
325.3 |
-0.697 |
40.0% |
5 |
163.40 |
6.05 |
-0.884 |
79.6% |
3 |
62.45 |
-0.863 |
27.3% |
4 |
2.40 |
-0.907 |
29.9% |
5 |
68.0% |
0.587 |
19.9% |
8 |
wxduff |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
26 |
328.3 |
-0.687 |
39.4% |
6 |
156.91 |
12.54 |
-0.641 |
57.7% |
5 |
65.26 |
-0.759 |
24.0% |
6 |
2.51 |
-0.811 |
26.7% |
6 |
70.9% |
0.739 |
25.0% |
5 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
wxblaster |
Rookie |
27 |
328.7 |
-0.686 |
39.3% |
7 |
158.50 |
10.95 |
-0.701 |
63.0% |
4 |
63.45 |
-0.826 |
26.1% |
5 |
2.35 |
-0.953 |
31.4% |
4 |
69.5% |
0.666 |
22.6% |
6 |
wxblaster |
|
Newa2010 |
Senior |
25 |
337.8 |
-0.657 |
37.6% |
8 |
155.05 |
14.40 |
-0.571 |
51.4% |
7 |
74.00 |
-0.437 |
13.8% |
10 |
2.96 |
-0.413 |
13.6% |
10 |
69.1% |
0.647 |
21.9% |
7 |
Newa2010 |
|
herb@maws |
Senior |
25 |
361.0 |
-0.582 |
33.4% |
9 |
193.55 |
24.10 |
-0.207 |
18.6% |
13 |
72.30 |
-0.500 |
15.8% |
8 |
2.89 |
-0.473 |
15.6% |
9 |
67.6% |
0.564 |
19.1% |
9 |
herb@maws |
|
Shillelagh |
Senior |
22 |
391.3 |
-0.484 |
27.8% |
10 |
152.50 |
16.95 |
-0.475 |
42.8% |
9 |
72.55 |
-0.491 |
15.5% |
9 |
3.30 |
-0.114 |
3.7% |
12 |
61.7% |
0.258 |
8.7% |
12 |
Shillelagh |
|
brentsuny07 |
Rookie |
24 |
421.8 |
-0.386 |
22.1% |
11 |
169.60 |
0.15 |
-1.106 |
99.5% |
1 |
83.25 |
-0.096 |
3.0% |
13 |
3.47 |
0.038 |
-1.2% |
15 |
57.6% |
0.044 |
1.5% |
13 |
brentsuny07 |
|
snowman |
Senior |
26 |
448.1 |
-0.302 |
17.3% |
12 |
145.50 |
23.95 |
-0.213 |
19.1% |
12 |
79.35 |
-0.240 |
7.6% |
12 |
3.05 |
-0.331 |
10.9% |
11 |
57.3% |
0.033 |
1.1% |
14 |
snowman |
|
millersville_bauers |
Rookie |
26 |
453.3 |
-0.285 |
16.3% |
13 |
215.70 |
46.25 |
0.624 |
-56.2% |
18 |
88.15 |
0.085 |
-2.7% |
15 |
3.39 |
-0.032 |
1.0% |
14 |
64.1% |
0.384 |
13.0% |
11 |
millersville_bauers |
|
Mitchel Volk |
Senior |
26 |
469.0 |
-0.234 |
13.4% |
14 |
192.00 |
22.55 |
-0.265 |
23.9% |
11 |
87.65 |
0.066 |
-2.1% |
14 |
3.37 |
-0.049 |
1.6% |
13 |
55.8% |
-0.045 |
-1.5% |
15 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
catatonia |
Journeyman |
26 |
492.8 |
-0.158 |
9.0% |
15 |
219.70 |
50.25 |
0.774 |
-69.7% |
19 |
74.05 |
-0.435 |
13.8% |
11 |
2.85 |
-0.512 |
16.9% |
7 |
64.8% |
0.422 |
14.3% |
10 |
catatonia |
|
emoran |
Senior |
23 |
654.2 |
0.362 |
-20.8% |
16 |
155.90 |
13.55 |
-0.603 |
54.3% |
6 |
98.45 |
0.464 |
-14.7% |
17 |
4.28 |
0.757 |
-24.9% |
17 |
37.2% |
-1.013 |
-34.3% |
18 |
emoran |
|
TQ |
Senior |
24 |
719.5 |
0.572 |
-32.8% |
17 |
135.05 |
34.40 |
0.179 |
-16.1% |
16 |
97.00 |
0.411 |
-13.0% |
16 |
4.04 |
0.545 |
-18.0% |
16 |
32.4% |
-1.264 |
-42.8% |
19 |
TQ |
|
bubbler86 |
Senior |
25 |
1046.2 |
1.624 |
-93.1% |
18 |
260.00 |
90.55 |
2.286 |
-205.7% |
20 |
120.85 |
1.290 |
-40.8% |
18 |
4.83 |
1.247 |
-41.1% |
18 |
47.7% |
-0.468 |
-15.8% |
16 |
bubbler86 |
|
nnjwxguy78 |
Intern |
24 |
1086.8 |
1.755 |
-100.6% |
19 |
210.45 |
41.00 |
0.427 |
-38.4% |
17 |
131.60 |
1.686 |
-53.3% |
19 |
5.48 |
1.822 |
-60.0% |
19 |
18.8% |
-1.975 |
-66.9% |
20 |
nnjwxguy78 |
|
Roger Smith |
Rookie |
26 |
1201.5 |
2.124 |
-121.8% |
20 |
280.20 |
110.75 |
3.044 |
-273.9% |
21 |
143.85 |
2.138 |
-67.5% |
20 |
5.53 |
1.866 |
-61.5% |
20 |
47.6% |
-0.475 |
-16.1% |
17 |
Roger Smith |
|
weathafella |
Journeyman |
25 |
1203.0 |
2.129 |
-122.1% |
21 |
148.70 |
20.75 |
-0.333 |
29.9% |
10 |
146.45 |
2.234 |
-70.6% |
21 |
5.86 |
2.154 |
-71.0% |
21 |
2.2% |
-2.836 |
-96.1% |
21 |
weathafella |
|
Forecast
Parameters |
530 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
22 |
233 |
-0.996 |
-122.1% |
1 |
135.05 |
0.15 |
-1.106 |
-273.9% |
1 |
57.1 |
-1.058 |
-70.6% |
1 |
2.15 |
-1.130 |
-71.0% |
1 |
2.2% |
-2.836 |
-96.1% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
27 |
1203 |
2.129 |
57.1% |
21 |
280.20 |
110.75 |
3.044 |
99.5% |
21 |
146.4 |
2.234 |
33.4% |
21 |
5.86 |
2.154 |
37.2% |
21 |
77.9% |
1.101 |
37.3% |
21 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
25 |
542 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
11 |
181.49 |
29.62 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
11 |
85.9 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
11 |
3.43 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
11 |
56.7% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
11 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
26 |
422 |
-0.386 |
22.1% |
11 |
169.60 |
22.55 |
-0.265 |
23.9% |
11 |
74.0 |
-0.435 |
13.8% |
11 |
3.05 |
-0.331 |
10.9% |
11 |
64.1% |
0.384 |
13.0% |
11 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
1 |
311 |
1.000 |
57.3% |
6.1 |
37.98 |
26.65 |
1.000 |
90.0% |
6.1 |
27.1 |
1.000 |
31.6% |
6.1 |
1.13 |
1.000 |
33.0% |
6.1 |
19.2% |
1.000 |
33.9% |
6.1 |
STD |
|
|
25% |
24 |
328 |
-0.687 |
-20.8% |
6 |
155.05 |
13.55 |
-0.603 |
-16.1% |
6 |
65.3 |
-0.759 |
-13.0% |
6 |
2.51 |
-0.811 |
-18.0% |
6 |
47.7% |
-0.468 |
-15.8% |
6 |
|
|
|
75% |
26 |
654 |
0.362 |
39.4% |
16 |
201.20 |
34.40 |
0.179 |
54.3% |
16 |
97.0 |
0.411 |
24.0% |
16 |
4.04 |
0.545 |
26.7% |
16 |
69.5% |
0.666 |
22.6% |
16 |
|
|
***************************************************
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank
|
1st
Place
For every inch of snow forecast…0.92” was observed. Forecast accounted for 68% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
2nd
Place
For every inch of snow forecast…0.86” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 65% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
3rd Place
For every inch of snow forecast…0.75” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 72% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
Honorable Mention
For every inch of snow observed…1” was
forecast. Forecast accounted for 63%
of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
Average stations per forecaster: 25
Stations with observed snowfall: 23
Minimum: 135.5” (TQ)
Consensus Median: 169.6”
Maximum: 280.2“ (Roger Smith)
Observed: 169.45”
Max single station: BWI (19.5”)
Shutout: BGR…PWM…CON…RDU
New Daily Records:
TUE...09-FEB-10
PHL - 6" (5.5"; 2006)
IAD - 11.5" (2"; 1980)
WED...10-FEB-10
BDR - 4.8" (1.9"; 1967)
BGM - 4" (2.3"; 2003)
ISP - 9.2" (T; 2008)
JFK - 11.1" (2.5"; 1967)
ABE - 17.3" (4.2"; 1926)
PHL - 9.3" (8.7"; 1926)
EWR - 13.2" (2.6"; 1964)
BWI - 15.5" (9.8"; 1926)
IAD - 9.3" (0.5"; 1986)
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
weatherT |
CAR IAD |
0.077 |
|
1 |
wxduff |
CAR SBY |
0.077 |
|
3 |
TQ |
CAR |
0.042 |
|
4 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
SBY |
0.038 |
|
5 |
donsutherland1 |
JFK |
0.037 |
|
5 |
wxfox51 |
CAR |
0.037 |
|
5 |
wxblaster |
SBY |
0.037 |
|
8 |
Raven |
|
0.000 |
|
8 |
Newa2010 |
|
0.000 |
|
8 |
herb@maws |
|
0.000 |
|
8 |
Shillelagh |
|
0.000 |
|
8 |
brentsuny07 |
|
0.000 |
|
8 |
snowman |
|
0.000 |
|
8 |
millersville_bauers |
|
0.000 |
|
8 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
0.000 |
|
8 |
catatonia |
|
0.000 |
|
8 |
emoran |
|
0.000 |
|
8 |
bubbler86 |
|
0.000 |
|
8 |
nnjwxguy78 |
|
0.000 |
|
8 |
Roger Smith |
|
0.000 |
|
8 |
weathafella |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
weatherT |
CAR BOS PVD ALB IAD ORF |
6 |
0.231 |
|
2 |
wxblaster |
BTV HYA ORH BDR SBY |
5 |
0.185 |
|
3 |
catatonia |
ABE ACY EWR BWI |
4 |
0.154 |
|
4 |
wxduff |
CAR BTV SBY |
3 |
0.115 |
|
5 |
Shillelagh |
BGM PHL |
2 |
0.091 |
|
6 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
SBY ORF |
2 |
0.077 |
|
6 |
Mitchel Volk |
ISP DCA |
2 |
0.077 |
|
8 |
donsutherland1 |
JFK ORF |
2 |
0.074 |
|
8 |
wxfox51 |
CAR BTV |
2 |
0.074 |
|
10 |
emoran |
BTV |
1 |
0.043 |
|
11 |
Raven |
ORF |
1 |
0.042 |
|
11 |
brentsuny07 |
ACY |
1 |
0.042 |
|
11 |
TQ |
CAR |
1 |
0.042 |
|
14 |
Newa2010 |
BDL |
1 |
0.040 |
|
14 |
herb@maws |
ALB |
1 |
0.040 |
|
14 |
bubbler86 |
MDT |
1 |
0.040 |
|
14 |
weathafella |
ISP |
1 |
0.040 |
|
18 |
snowman |
RIC |
1 |
0.038 |
|
19 |
millersville_bauers |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
19 |
nnjwxguy78 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
19 |
Roger Smith |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Roger Smith |
HYA PVD ISP ACY SBY RIC
RDU |
7 |
0.269 |
|
2 |
weathafella |
BGR PWM CON BTV BWI DCA |
6 |
0.240 |
|
3 |
TQ |
ABE MDT PHL |
3 |
0.125 |
|
4 |
nnjwxguy78 |
BDR BDL |
2 |
0.083 |
|
5 |
bubbler86 |
BOS IAD |
2 |
0.080 |
|
6 |
snowman |
JFK EWR |
2 |
0.077 |
|
6 |
millersville_bauers |
ALB BGM |
2 |
0.077 |
|
6 |
catatonia |
CAR ORH |
2 |
0.077 |
|
9 |
emoran |
HYA |
1 |
0.043 |
|
10 |
Newa2010 |
CAR |
1 |
0.040 |
|
11 |
donsutherland1 |
CAR |
1 |
0.037 |
|
11 |
wxblaster |
ORF |
1 |
0.037 |
|
13 |
wxfox51 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
13 |
weatherT |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
13 |
Raven |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
13 |
wxduff |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
13 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
13 |
herb@maws |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
13 |
Shillelagh |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
13 |
brentsuny07 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
13 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
0 |
0.000 |
***********************************
***********************************
Consensus forecast best @ HYA…ISP…ACY…IAD…DCA…RIC
MAX forecast best @ ABE…MDT…BWI
MAX forecast less than observed @ ABE
MIN forecasts best @ BOS…PVD…BDR…BDL…ALB
MIN forecasts more than observed @ BOS…PVD…BDL
Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…and PNS
No climate report for SBY at post-time. AKQPNS carried a report of 8" from law enforcement.
The snowfall total seems reasonable when plotted along with other reports from the immediate area.
No spotter report for HYA in BOXPNS. The 11-FEB-10 METAR at 12z carried a 7/group report of 0.78".
That was reduced by 0.01" to account for a brief period of rain…that fell during the verification period.
Storm-total snowfall was estimated at 6.8" by applying an 8.8:1 ratio...the observed ratio at PVD.
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
|
23 |
CAR |
0.05 |
|
|
|
BGR |
-
|
|
|
|
PWM |
-
|
|
|
|
CON |
-
|
|
|
22 |
BTV |
0.10 |
|
|
19 |
BOS |
1.20 |
6.0 |
|
12 |
HYA |
6.80 |
8.8 |
|
17 |
ORH |
2.60 |
13.0 |
|
18 |
PVD |
2.20 |
8.8 |
|
14 |
BDR |
4.80 |
10.0 |
|
15 |
BDL |
2.90 |
13.2 |
|
20 |
ALB |
0.80 |
16.0 |
|
13 |
BGM |
5.30 |
15.1 |
|
9 |
ISP |
9.20 |
10.0 |
|
7 |
JFK |
11.30 |
9.6 |
|
2 |
ABE |
17.80 |
12.4 |
|
3 |
MDT |
15.70 |
19.1 |
|
4 |
PHL |
15.30 |
9.3 |
|
11 |
ACY |
7.20 |
|
|
5 |
EWR |
13.20 |
9.6 |
|
1 |
BWI |
19.50 |
20.7 |
|
6 |
IAD |
11.50 |
31.1 |
|
8 |
DCA |
10.80 |
20.0 |
|
10 |
SBY |
8.00 |
|
|
16 |
RIC |
2.80 |
18.7 |
|
21 |
ORF |
0.40 |
40.0 |
|
|
RDU |
-
|
|
|
|
TOT |
169.45 |
14.2 |
*******************************
Five-day 5H anomaly height correlations