Individual station-level forecaster results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #4.
Forecasters:
|
Rookie |
8 |
|
Intern |
3 |
|
Journey |
2 |
|
Senior |
12 |
|
Total |
25 |
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
172.00 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
Roger Smith |
Rookie |
24 |
392.2 |
-1.218 |
55.2% |
1 |
161.70 |
10.30 |
-0.957 |
68.9% |
5 |
64.90 |
-0.999 |
25.5% |
4 |
2.70 |
-1.272 |
31.2% |
1 |
90.0% |
1.050 |
21.4% |
1 |
Roger Smith |
|
catatonia |
Journeyman |
21 |
493.2 |
-0.964 |
43.7% |
2 |
151.70 |
20.30 |
-0.537 |
38.7% |
9 |
63.30 |
-1.072 |
27.3% |
2 |
3.01 |
-0.950 |
23.3% |
4 |
84.8% |
0.708 |
14.4% |
4 |
catatonia |
|
wxfox51 |
Rookie |
23 |
500.5 |
-0.946 |
42.9% |
3 |
179.31 |
7.30 |
-1.082 |
77.9% |
3 |
63.00 |
-1.085 |
27.7% |
1 |
2.74 |
-1.236 |
30.3% |
2 |
81.6% |
0.491 |
10.0% |
9 |
wxfox51 |
|
herb@maws |
Senior |
21 |
521.0 |
-0.894 |
40.5% |
4 |
150.21 |
21.80 |
-0.475 |
34.2% |
11 |
70.80 |
-0.734 |
18.7% |
5 |
3.37 |
-0.580 |
14.2% |
8 |
84.1% |
0.657 |
13.4% |
5 |
herb@maws |
|
donsutherland1 |
Chief |
22 |
548.1 |
-0.826 |
37.4% |
5 |
138.80 |
33.20 |
0.004 |
-0.3% |
16 |
64.50 |
-1.018 |
25.9% |
3 |
2.93 |
-1.036 |
25.4% |
3 |
87.3% |
0.868 |
17.7% |
2 |
donsutherland1 |
|
wxduff |
Intern |
23 |
576.6 |
-0.754 |
34.2% |
6 |
174.01 |
2.00 |
-1.305 |
93.9% |
1 |
74.50 |
-0.567 |
14.5% |
8 |
3.24 |
-0.717 |
17.6% |
6 |
78.5% |
0.285 |
5.8% |
14 |
wxduff |
|
wxblaster |
Rookie |
24 |
578.5 |
-0.749 |
34.0% |
7 |
149.55 |
22.45 |
-0.447 |
32.2% |
12 |
73.15 |
-0.628 |
16.0% |
7 |
3.05 |
-0.915 |
22.4% |
5 |
81.5% |
0.486 |
9.9% |
10 |
wxblaster |
|
ilibov |
Senior |
24 |
594.3 |
-0.709 |
32.2% |
8 |
179.65 |
7.65 |
-1.068 |
76.9% |
4 |
82.55 |
-0.204 |
5.2% |
14 |
3.44 |
-0.509 |
12.5% |
9 |
78.9% |
0.312 |
6.4% |
12 |
ilibov |
|
bruced39 |
Journeyman |
24 |
605.1 |
-0.682 |
30.9% |
9 |
169.55 |
2.45 |
-1.286 |
92.6% |
2 |
85.55 |
-0.069 |
1.8% |
15 |
3.56 |
-0.379 |
9.3% |
11 |
80.9% |
0.449 |
9.1% |
11 |
bruced39 |
|
bubbler86 |
Senior |
24 |
639.8 |
-0.595 |
27.0% |
10 |
193.01 |
21.01 |
-0.508 |
36.6% |
10 |
97.50 |
0.469 |
-12.0% |
22 |
4.06 |
0.138 |
-3.4% |
17 |
78.4% |
0.279 |
5.7% |
15 |
bubbler86 |
|
Raven |
Senior |
21 |
648.0 |
-0.574 |
26.0% |
11 |
142.21 |
29.79 |
-0.139 |
10.0% |
14 |
80.99 |
-0.274 |
7.0% |
13 |
3.86 |
-0.075 |
1.8% |
14 |
82.4% |
0.548 |
11.2% |
7 |
Raven |
|
emoran |
Senior |
20 |
745.6 |
-0.329 |
14.9% |
12 |
117.56 |
54.44 |
0.895 |
-64.5% |
19 |
71.74 |
-0.691 |
17.6% |
6 |
3.59 |
-0.355 |
8.7% |
12 |
86.2% |
0.799 |
16.3% |
3 |
emoran |
|
Newa2010 |
Senior |
23 |
770.3 |
-0.266 |
12.1% |
13 |
131.40 |
40.60 |
0.314 |
-22.6% |
17 |
79.80 |
-0.328 |
8.4% |
11 |
3.47 |
-0.478 |
11.7% |
10 |
82.5% |
0.553 |
11.3% |
6 |
Newa2010 |
|
wxfrisch |
Rookie |
23 |
817.5 |
-0.148 |
6.7% |
14 |
146.95 |
25.05 |
-0.338 |
24.3% |
13 |
74.75 |
-0.556 |
14.2% |
9 |
3.25 |
-0.706 |
17.3% |
7 |
70.9% |
-0.215 |
-4.4% |
19 |
wxfrisch |
|
pspeck14 |
Rookie |
23 |
835.5 |
-0.102 |
4.6% |
15 |
157.10 |
14.90 |
-0.764 |
55.0% |
8 |
91.50 |
0.199 |
-5.1% |
17 |
3.98 |
0.051 |
-1.2% |
15 |
69.1% |
-0.337 |
-6.9% |
21 |
pspeck14 |
|
Shillelagh |
Senior |
21 |
876.5 |
0.001 |
0.0% |
16 |
117.06 |
54.95 |
0.916 |
-66.0% |
20 |
77.15 |
-0.448 |
11.4% |
10 |
3.67 |
-0.266 |
6.5% |
13 |
81.9% |
0.515 |
10.5% |
8 |
Shillelagh |
|
wxzimmer |
Rookie |
22 |
942.3 |
0.167 |
-7.6% |
17 |
157.16 |
14.85 |
-0.766 |
55.2% |
7 |
93.95 |
0.309 |
-7.9% |
19 |
4.27 |
0.354 |
-8.7% |
18 |
65.4% |
-0.582 |
-11.8% |
22 |
wxzimmer |
|
millersville_bauers |
Rookie |
22 |
973.2 |
0.244 |
-11.1% |
18 |
116.95 |
55.05 |
0.921 |
-66.3% |
21 |
94.25 |
0.323 |
-8.2% |
20 |
4.28 |
0.368 |
-9.0% |
19 |
76.6% |
0.161 |
3.3% |
17 |
millersville_bauers |
|
Mitchel Volk |
Senior |
20 |
1057.9 |
0.457 |
-20.7% |
19 |
107.01 |
64.99 |
1.338 |
-96.3% |
22 |
79.99 |
-0.319 |
8.1% |
12 |
4.00 |
0.073 |
-1.8% |
16 |
74.4% |
0.019 |
0.4% |
18 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
TQ |
Senior |
20 |
1140.2 |
0.665 |
-30.1% |
20 |
101.11 |
70.89 |
1.585 |
-114.1% |
23 |
86.79 |
-0.013 |
0.3% |
16 |
4.34 |
0.426 |
-10.4% |
20 |
70.9% |
-0.215 |
-4.4% |
20 |
TQ |
|
weatherT |
Intern |
22 |
1171.9 |
0.744 |
-33.8% |
21 |
89.91 |
82.10 |
2.055 |
-148.0% |
25 |
96.60 |
0.429 |
-10.9% |
21 |
4.39 |
0.479 |
-11.7% |
21 |
78.5% |
0.290 |
5.9% |
13 |
weatherT |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
20 |
1234.2 |
0.901 |
-40.9% |
22 |
91.25 |
80.75 |
1.999 |
-143.9% |
24 |
93.05 |
0.269 |
-6.9% |
18 |
4.65 |
0.751 |
-18.4% |
22 |
78.0% |
0.258 |
5.2% |
16 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
snowman |
Senior |
20 |
1474.5 |
1.506 |
-68.3% |
23 |
125.01 |
46.99 |
0.583 |
-41.9% |
18 |
120.99 |
1.528 |
-38.9% |
23 |
6.05 |
2.201 |
-54.0% |
23 |
48.7% |
-1.688 |
-34.4% |
23 |
snowman |
|
nnjwxguy78 |
Intern |
24 |
1873.6 |
2.511 |
-113.8% |
24 |
158.50 |
13.50 |
-0.823 |
59.2% |
6 |
149.60 |
2.817 |
-71.8% |
25 |
6.23 |
2.392 |
-58.6% |
25 |
32.1% |
-2.782 |
-56.7% |
24 |
nnjwxguy78 |
|
wxdanielap |
Rookie |
24 |
1892.4 |
2.558 |
-116.0% |
25 |
141.64 |
30.36 |
-0.115 |
8.3% |
15 |
146.14 |
2.661 |
-67.8% |
24 |
6.09 |
2.242 |
-55.0% |
24 |
30.2% |
-2.908 |
-59.2% |
25 |
wxdanielap |
|
Forecast
Parameters |
555 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
20 |
392 |
-1.218 |
-116.0% |
1 |
89.91 |
2.00 |
-1.305 |
-148.0% |
1 |
63.0 |
-1.085 |
-71.8% |
1 |
2.70 |
-1.272 |
-58.6% |
1 |
30.2% |
-2.908 |
-59.2% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
24 |
1892 |
2.558 |
55.2% |
25 |
193.01 |
82.10 |
2.055 |
93.9% |
25 |
149.6 |
2.817 |
27.7% |
25 |
6.23 |
2.392 |
31.2% |
25 |
90.0% |
1.050 |
21.4% |
25 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
22 |
876 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
13 |
141.93 |
33.11 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
13 |
87.1 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
13 |
3.93 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
13 |
74.2% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
13 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
22 |
770 |
-0.266 |
12.1% |
13 |
146.95 |
25.05 |
-0.338 |
24.3% |
13 |
81.0 |
-0.274 |
7.0% |
13 |
3.67 |
-0.266 |
6.5% |
13 |
78.5% |
0.290 |
5.9% |
13 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
1 |
397 |
1.000 |
45.3% |
7.2 |
27.57 |
23.84 |
1.000 |
72.0% |
7.2 |
22.2 |
1.000 |
25.5% |
7.2 |
0.96 |
1.000 |
24.5% |
7.2 |
15.1% |
1.000 |
20.4% |
7.2 |
STD |
|
|
25% |
21 |
579 |
-0.749 |
-20.7% |
7 |
117.56 |
14.85 |
-0.766 |
-64.5% |
7 |
73.1 |
-0.628 |
-7.9% |
7 |
3.25 |
-0.706 |
-9.0% |
7 |
70.9% |
-0.215 |
-4.4% |
7 |
|
|
|
75% |
24 |
1058 |
0.457 |
34.0% |
19 |
158.50 |
54.44 |
0.895 |
55.2% |
19 |
93.9 |
0.309 |
16.0% |
19 |
4.28 |
0.368 |
17.3% |
19 |
82.4% |
0.548 |
11.2% |
19 |
|
|
***************************************************
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank
|
1st
Place
For every inch of snow observed…0.77” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 87% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
2nd
Place
For every inch of snow observed …0.75” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 83% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
3rd Place
For every inch of snow observed …0.92” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 81% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
Honorable Mention
For every inch of snow observed …0.74” was
forecast. Forecast accounted for 82%
of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
Average stations per forecaster: 22
Stations with observed snowfall: 20
Minimum: 73.3” (89.9”; weatherT)
Consensus Median: 141.9”
Maximum: 133.55“ (193”; bubbler86)
Observed: 172”
Max single station: IAD (32.4”)
Shutout: BGR…PWM…CON…ORH…BDR…BDL…BGM
New Daily Records (9):
FRI...05-FEB-10
ACY - 3.6" (1"; 1948)
BWI - 9" (6.4"; 1899)
IAD - 14.9" (1"; 2001)
DCA - 8.7" (7.5"; 1892)
SAT...06-FEB-10
PHL - 22" (12.4"; 1978)
ACY - 14.6" (11.5"; 1978)
BWI - 17" (8.4"; 1978)
IAD - 17.5" (4.4"; 1983)
DCA - 9.1" (4.4"; 1983)
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
millersville_bauers |
HYA PVD RDU |
0.136 |
|
2 |
wxblaster |
BOS HYA PVD |
0.125 |
|
3 |
wxzimmer |
HYA PVD |
0.091 |
|
4 |
ilibov |
BOS HYA |
0.083 |
|
4 |
bruced39 |
BOS ALB |
0.083 |
|
6 |
emoran |
ISP |
0.050 |
|
6 |
TQ |
ISP |
0.050 |
|
8 |
herb@maws |
RDU |
0.048 |
|
8 |
Shillelagh |
HYA |
0.048 |
|
10 |
donsutherland1 |
HYA |
0.045 |
|
11 |
wxfox51 |
SBY |
0.043 |
|
11 |
Newa2010 |
RDU |
0.043 |
|
11 |
wxfrisch |
BOS |
0.043 |
|
11 |
pspeck14 |
BOS |
0.043 |
|
15 |
wxdanielap |
HYA |
0.042 |
|
16 |
Roger Smith |
|
0.000 |
|
16 |
catatonia |
|
0.000 |
|
16 |
wxduff |
|
0.000 |
|
16 |
bubbler86 |
|
0.000 |
|
16 |
Raven |
|
0.000 |
|
16 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
0.000 |
|
16 |
weatherT |
|
0.000 |
|
16 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0.000 |
|
16 |
snowman |
|
0.000 |
|
16 |
nnjwxguy78 |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
wxfrisch |
BOS MDT BWI ORF |
4 |
0.174 |
|
2 |
wxblaster |
BOS HYA PVD ORF |
4 |
0.167 |
|
3 |
millersville_bauers |
HYA PVD RDU |
3 |
0.136 |
|
4 |
ilibov |
BOS HYA ACY |
3 |
0.125 |
|
5 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
BTV EWR |
2 |
0.100 |
|
6 |
catatonia |
ABE DCA |
2 |
0.095 |
|
7 |
donsutherland1 |
CAR HYA |
2 |
0.091 |
|
7 |
wxzimmer |
HYA PVD |
2 |
0.091 |
|
9 |
wxfox51 |
IAD SBY |
2 |
0.087 |
|
9 |
Newa2010 |
ORF RDU |
2 |
0.087 |
|
11 |
bruced39 |
BOS ALB |
2 |
0.083 |
|
12 |
emoran |
ISP |
1 |
0.050 |
|
12 |
Mitchel Volk |
RIC |
1 |
0.050 |
|
12 |
TQ |
ISP |
1 |
0.050 |
|
15 |
herb@maws |
RDU |
1 |
0.048 |
|
15 |
Shillelagh |
HYA |
1 |
0.048 |
|
17 |
weatherT |
JFK |
1 |
0.045 |
|
18 |
wxduff |
PHL |
1 |
0.043 |
|
18 |
pspeck14 |
BOS |
1 |
0.043 |
|
20 |
wxdanielap |
HYA |
1 |
0.042 |
|
21 |
Roger Smith |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
21 |
bubbler86 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
21 |
Raven |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
21 |
snowman |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
21 |
nnjwxguy78 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
nnjwxguy78 |
BTV BOS HYA ORH ISP JFK
MDT EWR SBY |
9 |
0.375 |
|
2 |
wxdanielap |
BTV BDR ALB BGM BWI IAD
DCA RIC |
8 |
0.333 |
|
3 |
snowman |
BTV ABE PHL ACY ORF RDU |
6 |
0.300 |
|
4 |
bubbler86 |
BTV BOS ORH PVD BDL |
5 |
0.208 |
|
5 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
CAR PHL ACY |
3 |
0.150 |
|
6 |
Mitchel Volk |
BTV PHL |
2 |
0.100 |
|
7 |
donsutherland1 |
BGR BTV |
2 |
0.091 |
|
7 |
wxzimmer |
BTV RIC |
2 |
0.091 |
|
7 |
weatherT |
BTV PHL |
2 |
0.091 |
|
10 |
pspeck14 |
BTV SBY |
2 |
0.087 |
|
11 |
Roger Smith |
BTV HYA |
2 |
0.083 |
|
12 |
emoran |
BTV |
1 |
0.050 |
|
12 |
TQ |
BTV |
1 |
0.050 |
|
14 |
catatonia |
BTV |
1 |
0.048 |
|
14 |
herb@maws |
BTV |
1 |
0.048 |
|
14 |
Raven |
BTV |
1 |
0.048 |
|
14 |
Shillelagh |
BTV |
1 |
0.048 |
|
18 |
millersville_bauers |
BTV |
1 |
0.045 |
|
19 |
wxfox51 |
BTV |
1 |
0.043 |
|
19 |
wxduff |
BTV |
1 |
0.043 |
|
19 |
Newa2010 |
BTV |
1 |
0.043 |
|
19 |
wxfrisch |
BTV |
1 |
0.043 |
|
23 |
wxblaster |
BTV |
1 |
0.042 |
|
23 |
ilibov |
BTV |
1 |
0.042 |
|
23 |
bruced39 |
BTV |
1 |
0.042 |
***********************************
***********************************
Consensus forecast best @ DCA…RIC
MAX forecast best @ BTV…MDT…ACY…BWI…IAD
MAX forecast less than observed @ MDT…PHL
MIN forecasts best @ EWR
MIN forecasts more than observed @
Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41 bulletins. No official report from SBY. AKQPNS carried a report by SBY airport emergency manager of 14”.
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
|
14 |
CAR |
0.20 |
20.0 |
|
|
BGR |
-
|
|
|
|
PWM |
-
|
|
|
|
CON |
- |
|
|
12 |
BTV |
0.60 |
60.0 |
|
15 |
BOS |
0.05 |
|
|
15 |
HYA |
0.05 |
|
|
|
ORH |
-
|
|
|
15 |
PVD |
0.05 |
|
|
|
BDR |
-
|
|
|
|
BDL |
-
|
|
|
15 |
ALB |
0.05 |
|
|
|
BGM |
-
|
|
|
15 |
ISP |
0.05 |
|
|
10 |
JFK |
1.60 |
14.5 |
|
8 |
ABE |
7.70 |
12.2 |
|
5 |
MDT |
18.00 |
13.0 |
|
2 |
PHL |
28.60 |
11.9 |
|
4 |
ACY |
18.20 |
9.6 |
|
13 |
EWR |
0.40 |
20.0 |
|
3 |
BWI |
24.80 |
11.6 |
|
1 |
IAD |
32.40 |
20.3 |
|
6 |
DCA |
17.80 |
18.0 |
|
7 |
SBY |
14.00 |
|
|
9 |
RIC |
6.60 |
|
|
11 |
ORF |
0.80 |
|
|
15 |
RDU |
0.05 |
|
|
|
TOT |
172.00 |
15.4 |
*******************************
Five-day 5H anomaly height correlations