Forecasters:

Rookie

3

Intern

2

Journey

0

Senior

7

TOT

12

 

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

 

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

Final Standings - all Forecasters

 

Forecaster

Class

4casts

Sum Square

STP

TOTAL Absolute

AVG Absolute

 

 

 

 

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

53.75

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

ilibov

Senior

24

85.3

-1.711

51.5%

1

   56.85

3.10

-1.491

83.5%

1

25.90

-1.850

28.9%

1

1.08

-2.085

49.9%

1

67.7%

2.063

64.1%

1

Shillelagh

Senior

15

137.4

-0.727

21.9%

2

   29.51

24.24

0.520

-29.1%

9

31.04

-0.944

14.7%

3

2.07

-0.161

3.9%

6

46.8%

0.436

13.6%

4

millersville_bauers

Rookie

18

140.6

-0.668

20.1%

3

   25.65

28.10

0.886

-49.6%

10

29.80

-1.164

18.2%

2

1.66

-0.966

23.1%

2

45.7%

0.345

10.7%

5

nnjwxguy78

Intern

15

150.3

-0.483

14.6%

4

   49.51

4.24

-1.382

77.4%

2

33.04

-0.592

9.2%

4

2.20

0.098

-2.3%

7

57.1%

1.240

38.5%

2

herb@maws

Senior

20

159.4

-0.311

9.4%

5

   35.80

17.95

-0.079

4.4%

7

38.95

0.448

-7.0%

9

1.95

-0.398

9.5%

5

34.4%

-0.535

-16.6%

10

weatherT

Intern

21

160.7

-0.287

8.6%

6

   39.60

14.15

-0.440

24.7%

5

38.55

0.378

-5.9%

8

1.84

-0.615

14.7%

3

31.1%

-0.794

-24.7%

11

donsutherland1

Chief

15

174.1

-0.034

1.0%

7

   33.31

20.45

0.158

-8.9%

8

34.05

-0.415

6.5%

5

2.27

0.228

-5.4%

8

38.3%

-0.228

-7.1%

7

kevinmyatt

Rookie

14

177.3

0.025

-0.7%

8

   22.01

31.74

1.233

-69.0%

11

37.74

0.236

-3.7%

7

2.70

1.056

-25.2%

11

34.7%

-0.513

-15.9%

9

TQ

Senior

15

178.3

0.045

-1.4%

9

   36.36

17.39

-0.132

7.4%

6

37.19

0.139

-2.2%

6

2.48

0.636

-15.2%

9

41.5%

0.022

0.7%

6

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

15

200.7

0.467

-14.1%

10

   40.75

13.00

-0.550

30.8%

4

39.90

0.615

-9.6%

10

2.66

0.985

-23.6%

10

34.7%

-0.511

-15.9%

8

Mitchel Volk

Senior

15

242.7

1.259

-37.9%

11

   13.51

40.24

2.041

-114.3%

12

46.24

1.732

-27.0%

12

3.08

1.807

-43.2%

12

15.2%

-2.036

-63.2%

12

Roger Smith

Rookie

24

304.5

2.425

-73.1%

12

   64.50

10.75

-0.763

42.7%

3

44.45

1.417

-22.1%

11

1.85

-0.584

14.0%

4

47.8%

0.510

15.8%

3

Forecast Parameters

211

Error

Error Z

% MPRV

Rank

STP

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPRV

Rank

MIN

14

85

-1.711

-73.1%

1

13.51

3.10

-1.491

-114.3%

1

25.9

-1.850

-27.0%

1

1.08

-2.085

-43.2%

1

15.2%

-2.036

-63.2%

      1

MAX

24

305

2.425

51.5%

12

64.50

40.24

2.041

83.5%

12

46.2

1.732

28.9%

12

3.08

1.807

49.9%

12

67.7%

2.063

64.1%

    12

AVG

18

176

0.000

0.0%

7

37.28

18.78

0.000

0.0%

7

36.4

0.000

0.0%

7

2.15

0.000

0.0%

7

41.2%

0.000

0.0%

      7

Median

15

167

-0.160

4.8%

7

36.08

17.67

-0.105

5.9%

7

37.5

0.187

-2.9%

7

2.14

-0.032

0.8%

7

39.9%

-0.103

-3.2%

      7

Mode

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

STD

4

53

1.000

30.1%

3.5

13.86

10.52

1.000

56.0%

3.5

5.7

1.000

15.6%

3.5

0.51

1.000

23.9%

3.5

12.8%

1.000

31.1%

   3.5

25%

15

148

-0.529

-4.5%

4

28.54

12.43

-0.603

-34.2%

4

32.5

-0.680

-7.6%

4

1.85

-0.592

-17.3%

4

34.6%

-0.519

-16.1%

      4

75%

20

184

0.151

15.9%

9

42.94

25.21

0.611

33.8%

9

39.2

0.490

10.6%

9

2.52

0.723

14.1%

9

47.1%

0.455

14.1%

      9

 

***************************************************

Snow Storm #3 - Results Summary

 

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error

(number):  category rank

 

1st Place

Ilibov

SUMSQ:

85.26

 

SUMSQ Z:

-1.711

 

STP:

3.10

 (1)

TAE:

25.90

 (1)

AAE:

1.08

 (1)

For every inch of snow observed… 0.97” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 67% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

2nd Place

Shillelagh

SUMSQ:

137.41

 

SUMSQ Z:

-0.727

 

STP:

24.24

 (9)

TAE:

31.04

 (3)

AAE:

2.07

 (6)

For every inch of snow observed …0.58” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 47% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

3rd Place

millersville_bauers

SUMSQ:

140.56

 

SUMSQ Z:

-0.668

 

STP:

28.10

 (10)

TAE:

29.80

 (2)

AAE:

1.66

 (2)

For every inch of snow observed …0.45” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 45% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

Honorable Mention

nnjwxguy78

SUMSQ:

150.33

 

SUMSQ Z:

-0.483

 

STP:

4.24

 (2)

TAE:

33.04

 (4)

AAE:

2.20

 (7)

 For every inch of snow observed …0.96” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 57% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

***************************************************

 

Station forecasts: 211

Average stations per forecaster:  18

Stations with observed snowfall:  15

 

Storm-total precipitation (STP), all stations:

Forecast

Minimum:  13.51” (Mitchel Volk)

Consensus Median:  37.28”

Maximum:  64.5“ (Roger Smith)

 

Observed: 53.75”

            Max single station: RIC – 8”

Shutout:  PWM…CON…BOS..HYA…ORH…BDR…ALB…ISP…JFK…ABE…MDT…EWR

 

New Daily Records:
SAT...30-JAN-10

ACY - 7.6" (3.6"; 1966)

ORF - 6.1" (5"; 1965)

 

Perfect Forecasts

Rank

Forecaster

'Perfect Forecast' Stations

bat avg

1

weatherT

PVD BDL SBY

0.143

2

Shillelagh

RDU

0.067

2

donsutherland1

BTV

0.067

2

Donald Rosenfeld

RIC

0.067

5

millersville_bauers

BTV

0.056

6

Roger Smith

PVD

0.042

7

ilibov

 

0.000

7

nnjwxguy78

 

0.000

7

herb@maws

 

0.000

7

kevinmyatt

 

0.000

7

TQ

 

0.000

7

Mitchel Volk

 

0.000

 

Best Station Forecasts  (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Rank

Forecaster

'Lowest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

1

weatherT

PVD BDL SBY ORF

4

0.190

2

Roger Smith

BGR PVD PHL ACY

4

0.167

3

donsutherland1

CAR BTV

2

0.133

4

millersville_bauers

BTV BGM

2

0.111

5

ilibov

BWI DCA

2

0.083

6

kevinmyatt

ORF

1

0.071

7

Shillelagh

RDU

1

0.067

7

nnjwxguy78

IAD

1

0.067

7

Donald Rosenfeld

RIC

1

0.067

10

herb@maws

 

0

0.000

10

TQ

 

0

0.000

10

Mitchel Volk

 

0

0.000

 

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Rank

Forecaster

'Highest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

1

Mitchel Volk

PVD PHL ACY BWI DCA SBY RIC

7

0.467

2

kevinmyatt

PVD PHL ACY BWI IAD

5

0.357

3

weatherT

BGR PWM CON HYA ALB BGM PHL

7

0.333

4

herb@maws

CAR ORH PVD BDL ISP PHL

6

0.300

5

donsutherland1

PVD PHL ACY ORF

4

0.267

6

ilibov

PVD BDR JFK ABE MDT EWR

6

0.250

6

Roger Smith

BTV BOS HYA ABE ORF RDU

6

0.250

8

Shillelagh

PVD PHL ACY

3

0.200

8

TQ

PVD PHL ORF

3

0.200

8

Donald Rosenfeld

PVD PHL ACY

3

0.200

11

millersville_bauers

PVD PHL ACY

3

0.167

12

nnjwxguy78

PVD PHL

2

0.133

 

***********************************

Congratulations to the Winners!

 

***********************************

Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #3 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

 

 

Consensus forecast best @ CAR…RIC

MAX forecast best @  BWI…IAD…DCA…SBY

MAX forecast less than observed @ BWI…DCA

MIN forecasts best @ RDU

MIN forecasts more than observed @ none

 

 

Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

 

*******************************

Verification:

Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.

 

No climate data for SBY.  CO-OP observer reported 5” as of 2:20 PM SAT…30-JAN-10.  CF6 liquid precipitation report for GED (located ~25 miles north of SBY) carried 0.35” (SN:H2O of 14.3)…which appears reasonable when compared to surrounding stations.

 

Rank

Station

Snow

SN:H2O

      9

CAR

    2.40

    12.6

    12

BGR

    0.20

 

 

PWM

       -  

 

 

CON

       -  

 

    13

BTV

    0.05

 

 

BOS

       -  

 

 

HYA

       -  

 

 

ORH

       -  

 

    13

PVD

    0.05

 

 

BDR

       -  

 

    13

BDL

    0.05

 

 

ALB

       -  

 

    11

BGM

    0.80

    40.0

 

ISP

       -  

 

 

JFK

       -  

 

 

ABE

       -  

 

 

MDT

       -  

 

    10

PHL

    2.10

    21.0

      2

ACY

    7.60

    25.3

 

EWR

       -  

 

      5

BWI

    5.50

    22.9

      8

IAD

    4.50

    25.0

      3

DCA

    6.40

    49.2

      6

SBY

    5.00

    14.3

      1

RIC

    8.00

    14.0

      4

ORF

    6.10

 

      6

RDU

    5.00

 

 

TOT

53.75

    25.8

 

*******************************

Storm Notes

 

Surface Analysis

 

 

 

5H NHEMI

 

 

5H NOAM

 

 

IR

 

 

VIS

 

H2Ov

 

 

Radar

 

 

 

 

Snow cover:  01-FEB-10

 

Tele-connections

 

Five-day 5H anomaly height correlations

 

Five-day height error