Forecasters:
|
Rookie |
4 |
|
Intern |
2 |
|
Journey |
1 |
|
Senior |
10 |
|
TOTAL |
17 |
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
109.45 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
Shillelagh |
Senior |
19 |
570.6 |
-1.707 |
31.8% |
1 |
85.15 |
24.30 |
0.561 |
-44.3% |
13 |
47.70 |
-1.600 |
22.9% |
1 |
2.51 |
-1.259 |
20.3% |
2 |
63.9% |
2.184 |
51.6% |
1 |
Shillelagh |
|
millersville_bauers |
Rookie |
22 |
663.9 |
-1.107 |
20.6% |
2 |
108.35 |
1.10 |
-1.184 |
93.5% |
2 |
62.60 |
0.085 |
-1.2% |
11 |
2.85 |
-0.599 |
9.7% |
6 |
51.5% |
0.931 |
22.0% |
2 |
millersville_bauers |
|
Raven |
Senior |
19 |
721.6 |
-0.736 |
13.7% |
3 |
102.80 |
6.65 |
-0.767 |
60.5% |
6 |
59.15 |
-0.305 |
4.4% |
6 |
3.11 |
-0.072 |
1.2% |
8 |
47.3% |
0.519 |
12.3% |
5 |
Raven |
|
Dryslot |
Rookie |
19 |
735.4 |
-0.647 |
12.0% |
4 |
92.50 |
16.95 |
0.008 |
-0.6% |
10 |
54.95 |
-0.780 |
11.2% |
5 |
2.89 |
-0.507 |
8.2% |
7 |
47.7% |
0.559 |
13.2% |
4 |
Dryslot |
|
MarkHofmann |
Intern |
19 |
737.5 |
-0.634 |
11.8% |
5 |
98.01 |
11.44 |
-0.406 |
32.1% |
8 |
69.84 |
0.905 |
-12.9% |
13 |
3.68 |
1.038 |
-16.7% |
14 |
46.6% |
0.442 |
10.4% |
6 |
MarkHofmann |
|
ilibov |
Senior |
20 |
745.4 |
-0.583 |
10.8% |
6 |
109.00 |
0.45 |
-1.233 |
97.3% |
1 |
65.55 |
0.419 |
-6.0% |
12 |
3.28 |
0.253 |
-4.1% |
13 |
45.9% |
0.373 |
8.8% |
7 |
ilibov |
|
donsutherland1 |
Chief |
20 |
746.6 |
-0.575 |
10.7% |
7 |
81.70 |
27.75 |
0.820 |
-64.7% |
14 |
49.05 |
-1.448 |
20.7% |
3 |
2.45 |
-1.373 |
22.1% |
1 |
50.8% |
0.869 |
20.5% |
3 |
donsutherland1 |
|
Newa2010 |
Senior |
19 |
780.1 |
-0.360 |
6.7% |
8 |
97.25 |
12.20 |
-0.349 |
27.6% |
9 |
61.40 |
-0.050 |
0.7% |
9 |
3.23 |
0.162 |
-2.6% |
11 |
43.5% |
0.129 |
3.0% |
9 |
Newa2010 |
|
herb@maws |
Senior |
19 |
783.7 |
-0.337 |
6.3% |
9 |
98.85 |
10.60 |
-0.470 |
37.1% |
7 |
60.50 |
-0.152 |
2.2% |
8 |
3.18 |
0.069 |
-1.1% |
10 |
43.0% |
0.087 |
2.1% |
10 |
herb@maws |
|
Mitchel Volk |
Senior |
19 |
827.3 |
-0.057 |
1.1% |
10 |
86.01 |
23.44 |
0.496 |
-39.2% |
12 |
49.04 |
-1.448 |
20.7% |
2 |
2.58 |
-1.119 |
18.0% |
3 |
41.6% |
-0.060 |
-1.4% |
11 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
20 |
838.8 |
0.018 |
-0.3% |
11 |
74.42 |
35.03 |
1.368 |
-108.0% |
15 |
54.43 |
-0.839 |
12.0% |
4 |
2.72 |
-0.843 |
13.6% |
5 |
44.9% |
0.278 |
6.6% |
8 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
weatherT |
Intern |
19 |
884.4 |
0.311 |
-5.8% |
12 |
111.40 |
1.95 |
-1.120 |
88.4% |
3 |
72.45 |
1.200 |
-17.1% |
15 |
3.81 |
1.308 |
-21.1% |
15 |
39.5% |
-0.272 |
-6.4% |
12 |
weatherT |
|
wxfox51 |
Rookie |
19 |
901.1 |
0.418 |
-7.8% |
13 |
71.10 |
38.35 |
1.617 |
-127.7% |
16 |
61.55 |
-0.034 |
0.5% |
10 |
3.24 |
0.177 |
-2.9% |
12 |
38.7% |
-0.345 |
-8.1% |
13 |
wxfox51 |
|
defman27 |
Journeyman |
18 |
927.6 |
0.588 |
-10.9% |
14 |
103.00 |
6.45 |
-0.782 |
61.7% |
5 |
75.85 |
1.584 |
-22.6% |
17 |
4.21 |
2.098 |
-33.8% |
17 |
36.8% |
-0.539 |
-12.7% |
14 |
defman27 |
|
snowman |
Senior |
19 |
1073.0 |
1.524 |
-28.3% |
15 |
65.51 |
43.94 |
2.038 |
-160.9% |
17 |
59.55 |
-0.260 |
3.7% |
7 |
3.13 |
-0.030 |
0.5% |
9 |
26.9% |
-1.529 |
-36.1% |
16 |
snowman |
|
TQ |
Senior |
19 |
1105.5 |
1.733 |
-32.2% |
16 |
106.30 |
3.15 |
-1.030 |
81.3% |
4 |
75.75 |
1.573 |
-22.5% |
16 |
3.99 |
1.650 |
-26.6% |
16 |
27.1% |
-1.510 |
-35.7% |
15 |
TQ |
|
Roger Smith |
Rookie |
27 |
1170.9 |
2.153 |
-40.0% |
17 |
86.85 |
22.60 |
0.433 |
-34.2% |
11 |
72.00 |
1.149 |
-16.4% |
14 |
2.67 |
-0.951 |
15.3% |
4 |
21.1% |
-2.117 |
-50.0% |
17 |
Roger Smith |
|
Forecast
Parameters |
336 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
18 |
571 |
-1.707 |
-40.0% |
1 |
65.51 |
0.45 |
-1.233 |
-160.9% |
1 |
47.7 |
-1.600 |
-22.6% |
1 |
2.45 |
-1.373 |
-33.8% |
1 |
21.1% |
-2.117 |
-50.0% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
27 |
1171 |
2.153 |
31.8% |
17 |
111.40 |
43.94 |
2.038 |
97.3% |
17 |
75.8 |
1.584 |
22.9% |
17 |
4.21 |
2.098 |
22.1% |
17 |
63.9% |
2.184 |
51.6% |
17 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
20 |
836 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
9 |
92.84 |
16.84 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
9 |
61.8 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
9 |
3.15 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
9 |
42.2% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
9 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
19 |
784 |
-0.337 |
6.3% |
9 |
97.25 |
12.20 |
-0.349 |
27.6% |
9 |
61.4 |
-0.050 |
0.7% |
9 |
3.13 |
-0.030 |
0.5% |
9 |
43.5% |
0.129 |
3.0% |
9 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
2 |
156 |
1.000 |
18.6% |
4.9 |
13.58 |
13.30 |
1.000 |
79.0% |
4.9 |
8.8 |
1.000 |
14.3% |
4.9 |
0.51 |
1.000 |
16.1% |
4.9 |
10.0% |
1.000 |
23.6% |
4.9 |
STD |
|
|
25% |
19 |
737 |
-0.634 |
-7.8% |
5 |
85.15 |
6.45 |
-0.782 |
-44.3% |
5 |
54.9 |
-0.780 |
-12.9% |
5 |
2.72 |
-0.843 |
-4.1% |
5 |
38.7% |
-0.345 |
-8.1% |
5 |
|
|
|
75% |
20 |
901 |
0.418 |
11.8% |
13 |
103.00 |
24.30 |
0.561 |
61.7% |
13 |
69.8 |
0.905 |
11.2% |
13 |
3.28 |
0.253 |
13.6% |
13 |
47.3% |
0.519 |
12.3% |
13 |
|
|
***************************************************
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank
|
1st
Place
For every inch of snow observed… 0.55” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 58% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
2nd
Place
For every inch of snow observed …0.63” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 40% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
3rd Place
For every inch of snow observed …0.59” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 36% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
Honorable Mention
For every inch of snow observed …0.52” was
forecast. Forecast accounted for 35%
of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
Average stations per forecaster: 20
Stations with observed snowfall: 20
Minimum: 65.5” (snowman)
Consensus Median: 97.25
Maximum: 111.4“ (weatherT)
Observed: 97.7””
Max single station: BTV – 35.4”
Shutout: BWI…IAD…DCA…SBY…RIC…ORF…RDU
New Daily Records:
SAT...02-JAN-10
CAR - 8.5" (5.8"; 1972)
BGR - 12.1" (9.1"; 1995)
BTV - 19" (7.5"; 1947)
ISP - 3" (1"; 1987)
SUN...03-JAN-10
BTV - 16.4" (7.7"; 1996)
ISP - 2.1" (0.9"; 1988)
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
TQ |
ORH ABE PHL EWR |
0.211 |
|
2 |
Shillelagh |
ABE EWR |
0.105 |
|
2 |
Newa2010 |
MDT EWR |
0.105 |
|
2 |
herb@maws |
BGM ABE |
0.105 |
|
2 |
weatherT |
ABE MDT |
0.105 |
|
6 |
ilibov |
ABE MDT |
0.100 |
|
6 |
donsutherland1 |
ABE MDT |
0.100 |
|
8 |
Dryslot |
ORH |
0.053 |
|
8 |
MarkHofmann |
ORH |
0.053 |
|
8 |
Mitchel Volk |
ORH |
0.053 |
|
8 |
wxfox51 |
EWR |
0.053 |
|
8 |
snowman |
HYA |
0.053 |
|
13 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
BGM |
0.050 |
|
14 |
Roger Smith |
MDT |
0.037 |
|
15 |
millersville_bauers |
|
0.000 |
|
15 |
Raven |
|
0.000 |
|
15 |
defman27 |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
TQ |
BOS ORH BDL JFK ABE PHL
EWR |
7 |
0.368 |
|
2 |
Shillelagh |
BTV JFK ABE EWR |
4 |
0.211 |
|
2 |
Mitchel Volk |
CAR BGR ORH BDR |
4 |
0.211 |
|
4 |
Newa2010 |
JFK MDT EWR |
3 |
0.158 |
|
4 |
herb@maws |
ALB BGM ABE |
3 |
0.158 |
|
4 |
weatherT |
BOS ABE MDT |
3 |
0.158 |
|
4 |
snowman |
PWM CON HYA |
3 |
0.158 |
|
8 |
donsutherland1 |
JFK ABE MDT |
3 |
0.150 |
|
8 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
ALB BGM ACY |
3 |
0.150 |
|
10 |
wxfox51 |
JFK EWR |
2 |
0.105 |
|
11 |
ilibov |
ABE MDT |
2 |
0.100 |
|
12 |
Roger Smith |
PVD MDT |
2 |
0.074 |
|
13 |
Raven |
ISP |
1 |
0.053 |
|
13 |
Dryslot |
ORH |
1 |
0.053 |
|
13 |
MarkHofmann |
ORH |
1 |
0.053 |
|
16 |
millersville_bauers |
BTV |
1 |
0.045 |
|
17 |
defman27 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Roger Smith |
BTV ORH EWR BWI IAD DCA
SBY RIC ORF RDU |
10 |
0.370 |
|
2 |
MarkHofmann |
CON BDR BDL ALB |
4 |
0.211 |
|
3 |
defman27 |
CAR ISP MDT |
3 |
0.167 |
|
4 |
TQ |
PWM HYA PVD |
3 |
0.158 |
|
5 |
ilibov |
JFK PHL ACY |
3 |
0.150 |
|
6 |
millersville_bauers |
BGM IAD DCA |
3 |
0.136 |
|
7 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
JFK ABE |
2 |
0.100 |
|
8 |
herb@maws |
CON |
1 |
0.053 |
|
8 |
weatherT |
BGR |
1 |
0.053 |
|
8 |
snowman |
BOS |
1 |
0.053 |
|
11 |
Shillelagh |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
Raven |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
Dryslot |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
Newa2010 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
wxfox51 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
***********************************
***********************************
Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #2 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
Consensus forecast best @ ALB…BGM
MAX forecast best @ BOS…ORH
MAX forecast less than observed @ BTV…ISP
MIN forecasts best @ CAR…BGR…PWM…BDL
MIN forecasts more than observed @ BDL…PWM
Very poor association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins. No specific report for HYA. Interpolated between Chatham (5") and Marston Mills (3.5") from BOX PNS bulletin.
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
|
4 |
CAR |
8.50 |
13.1 |
|
2 |
BGR |
12.10 |
17.0 |
|
6 |
PWM |
7.10 |
17.3 |
|
7 |
CON |
6.90 |
16.0 |
|
1 |
BTV |
35.40 |
38.9 |
|
3 |
BOS |
10.10 |
16.0 |
|
9 |
HYA |
4.00 |
|
|
5 |
ORH |
8.00 |
18.6 |
|
10 |
PVD |
3.60 |
13.3 |
|
11 |
BDR |
3.20 |
24.6 |
|
14 |
BDL |
1.00 |
20.0 |
|
12 |
ALB |
2.60 |
|
|
13 |
BGM |
1.50 |
15.0 |
|
8 |
ISP |
5.10 |
13.8 |
|
15 |
JFK |
0.10 |
10.0 |
|
16 |
ABE |
0.05 |
|
|
16 |
MDT |
0.05 |
|
|
16 |
PHL |
0.05 |
|
|
16 |
ACY |
0.05 |
|
|
16 |
EWR |
0.05 |
|
|
|
BWI |
-
|
|
|
|
IAD |
-
|
|
|
|
DCA |
-
|
|
|
|
SBY |
-
|
|
|
|
RIC |
- |
|
|
|
ORF |
-
|
|
|
|
RDU |
-
|
|
|
|
TOT |
109.45 |
21.5 |
*******************************
Five-day 5H anomaly height correlations