Forecasters: 25
|
Rookie |
9 |
|
Intern |
3 |
|
Journeyman |
1 |
|
Senior |
11 |
In the verification table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
213.45 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
donsutherland1 |
Chief |
27 |
344.2 |
-0.915 |
67.4% |
1 |
220.00 |
6.55 |
-0.914 |
86.9% |
1 |
63.45 |
-1.001 |
43.6% |
3 |
2.35 |
-1.009 |
43.7% |
3 |
79.0% |
0.958 |
47.2% |
3 |
donsutherland1 |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
27 |
372.9 |
-0.878 |
64.7% |
2 |
194.25 |
19.20 |
-0.648 |
61.6% |
9 |
61.90 |
-1.032 |
44.9% |
2 |
2.29 |
-1.040 |
45.1% |
2 |
82.2% |
1.076 |
53.0% |
1 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
Newa2010 |
Senior |
27 |
379.1 |
-0.870 |
64.1% |
3 |
200.50 |
12.95 |
-0.779 |
74.1% |
6 |
69.85 |
-0.870 |
37.9% |
7 |
2.59 |
-0.878 |
38.0% |
6 |
76.9% |
0.878 |
43.3% |
5 |
Newa2010 |
|
herb@maws |
Senior |
27 |
383.2 |
-0.865 |
63.7% |
4 |
198.30 |
15.15 |
-0.733 |
69.7% |
7 |
60.35 |
-1.064 |
46.3% |
1 |
2.24 |
-1.072 |
46.4% |
1 |
78.8% |
0.949 |
46.8% |
4 |
herb@maws |
|
wxfox51 |
Rookie |
27 |
384.1 |
-0.863 |
63.6% |
5 |
174.75 |
38.70 |
-0.239 |
22.7% |
12 |
66.50 |
-0.938 |
40.9% |
4 |
2.46 |
-0.946 |
41.0% |
4 |
80.8% |
1.026 |
50.6% |
2 |
wxfox51 |
|
Raven |
Senior |
27 |
389.9 |
-0.856 |
63.1% |
6 |
221.90 |
8.45 |
-0.874 |
83.1% |
4 |
72.35 |
-0.819 |
35.7% |
9 |
2.68 |
-0.826 |
35.8% |
9 |
75.9% |
0.838 |
41.3% |
7 |
Raven |
|
emoran |
Senior |
26 |
431.4 |
-0.803 |
59.2% |
7 |
233.60 |
20.15 |
-0.628 |
59.7% |
10 |
68.45 |
-0.898 |
39.1% |
6 |
2.63 |
-0.852 |
36.9% |
8 |
74.1% |
0.771 |
38.0% |
9 |
emoran |
|
ilibov |
Senior |
27 |
461.0 |
-0.765 |
56.4% |
8 |
220.75 |
7.30 |
-0.898 |
85.4% |
2 |
67.40 |
-0.920 |
40.1% |
5 |
2.50 |
-0.928 |
40.2% |
5 |
71.5% |
0.671 |
33.1% |
12 |
ilibov |
|
millersville_bauers |
Rookie |
27 |
467.0 |
-0.757 |
55.8% |
9 |
173.70 |
39.75 |
-0.217 |
20.6% |
13 |
70.75 |
-0.851 |
37.1% |
8 |
2.62 |
-0.859 |
37.2% |
7 |
76.0% |
0.844 |
41.6% |
6 |
millersville_bauers |
|
TQ |
Senior |
26 |
538.5 |
-0.665 |
49.0% |
10 |
161.11 |
52.35 |
0.048 |
-4.6% |
17 |
76.95 |
-0.725 |
31.6% |
10 |
2.96 |
-0.671 |
29.1% |
11 |
74.9% |
0.801 |
39.5% |
8 |
TQ |
|
nnjwxguy78 |
Rookie |
27 |
608.9 |
-0.575 |
42.4% |
11 |
231.50 |
18.05 |
-0.672 |
63.9% |
8 |
92.95 |
-0.398 |
17.3% |
13 |
3.44 |
-0.404 |
17.5% |
13 |
63.0% |
0.352 |
17.4% |
14 |
nnjwxguy78 |
|
shillelagh |
Senior |
27 |
638.5 |
-0.537 |
39.6% |
12 |
155.20 |
58.25 |
0.172 |
-16.4% |
19 |
79.35 |
-0.676 |
29.4% |
11 |
2.94 |
-0.683 |
29.6% |
10 |
72.6% |
0.714 |
35.2% |
11 |
shillelagh |
|
weatherT |
Intern |
27 |
716.9 |
-0.436 |
32.1% |
13 |
139.01 |
74.45 |
0.512 |
-48.7% |
21 |
94.95 |
-0.357 |
15.6% |
14 |
3.52 |
-0.363 |
15.7% |
14 |
72.8% |
0.722 |
35.6% |
10 |
weatherT |
|
Dryslot |
Rookie |
27 |
732.0 |
-0.417 |
30.7% |
14 |
173.01 |
40.44 |
-0.202 |
19.2% |
14 |
91.74 |
-0.423 |
18.4% |
12 |
3.40 |
-0.429 |
18.6% |
12 |
60.8% |
0.268 |
13.2% |
15 |
Dryslot |
|
nynjpaweather |
Intern |
27 |
765.3 |
-0.374 |
27.5% |
15 |
204.10 |
9.35 |
-0.855 |
81.3% |
5 |
104.65 |
-0.159 |
6.9% |
15 |
3.88 |
-0.164 |
7.1% |
15 |
53.5% |
-0.007 |
-0.3% |
16 |
nynjpaweather |
|
Mitchel Volk |
Senior |
27 |
1053.5 |
-0.004 |
0.3% |
16 |
254.00 |
40.55 |
-0.200 |
19.0% |
15 |
112.85 |
0.008 |
-0.4% |
16 |
4.18 |
0.004 |
-0.2% |
16 |
41.9% |
-0.446 |
-22.0% |
17 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
snowman |
Senior |
27 |
1136.4 |
0.103 |
-7.6% |
17 |
205.70 |
7.75 |
-0.888 |
84.5% |
3 |
143.85 |
0.642 |
-27.9% |
18 |
5.33 |
0.639 |
-27.7% |
18 |
30.6% |
-0.873 |
-43.1% |
19 |
snowman |
|
Roger Smith |
Rookie |
27 |
1242.5 |
0.239 |
-17.6% |
18 |
329.10 |
115.65 |
1.377 |
-131.0% |
22 |
150.65 |
0.781 |
-34.0% |
19 |
5.58 |
0.779 |
-33.7% |
19 |
63.4% |
0.367 |
18.1% |
13 |
Roger Smith |
|
bubbler86 |
Senior |
27 |
1268.2 |
0.272 |
-20.1% |
19 |
190.00 |
23.45 |
-0.559 |
53.2% |
11 |
142.75 |
0.619 |
-27.0% |
17 |
5.29 |
0.617 |
-26.7% |
17 |
22.7% |
-1.171 |
-57.7% |
20 |
bubbler86 |
|
MikeDoughney |
Rookie |
27 |
1993.4 |
1.204 |
-88.7% |
20 |
275.31 |
61.85 |
0.248 |
-23.6% |
20 |
170.24 |
1.181 |
-51.4% |
20 |
6.31 |
1.181 |
-51.1% |
20 |
31.8% |
-0.828 |
-40.8% |
18 |
MikeDoughney |
|
MarkHofmann |
Intern |
27 |
2196.0 |
1.464 |
-107.9% |
21 |
366.00 |
152.55 |
2.152 |
-204.7% |
24 |
212.75 |
2.049 |
-89.2% |
25 |
7.88 |
2.052 |
-88.9% |
25 |
16.8% |
-1.392 |
-68.6% |
22 |
MarkHofmann |
|
snowlover |
Rookie |
27 |
2423.7 |
1.757 |
-129.5% |
22 |
164.02 |
49.44 |
-0.013 |
1.3% |
16 |
195.94 |
1.706 |
-74.3% |
24 |
7.26 |
1.707 |
-73.9% |
24 |
11.2% |
-1.604 |
-79.1% |
23 |
snowlover |
|
jha |
Rookie |
27 |
2480.7 |
1.830 |
-134.9% |
23 |
66.62 |
146.83 |
2.032 |
-193.3% |
23 |
178.63 |
1.352 |
-58.9% |
22 |
6.62 |
1.352 |
-58.6% |
22 |
10.7% |
-1.625 |
-80.1% |
24 |
jha |
|
Weathermbug |
Rookie |
27 |
2488.8 |
1.840 |
-135.6% |
24 |
36.02 |
177.43 |
2.674 |
-254.4% |
25 |
177.43 |
1.328 |
-57.8% |
21 |
6.57 |
1.328 |
-57.5% |
21 |
17.9% |
-1.352 |
-66.6% |
21 |
Weathermbug |
|
defman27 |
Journeyman |
27 |
2510.7 |
1.868 |
-137.7% |
25 |
158.51 |
54.94 |
0.103 |
-9.8% |
18 |
184.14 |
1.465 |
-63.8% |
23 |
6.82 |
1.465 |
-63.5% |
23 |
2.5% |
-1.935 |
-95.4% |
25 |
defman27 |
|
Forecast
Parameters |
673 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
26 |
344 |
-0.915 |
-137.7% |
1 |
36.02 |
6.55 |
-0.914 |
-254.4% |
1 |
60.3 |
-1.064 |
-89.2% |
1 |
2.24 |
-1.072 |
-88.9% |
1 |
2.5% |
-1.935 |
-95.4% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
27 |
2511 |
1.868 |
67.4% |
25 |
366.00 |
177.43 |
2.674 |
86.9% |
25 |
212.7 |
2.049 |
46.3% |
25 |
7.88 |
2.052 |
46.4% |
25 |
82.2% |
1.076 |
53.0% |
25 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
27 |
1056 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
13 |
197.88 |
50.06 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
13 |
112.4 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
13 |
4.17 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
13 |
53.7% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
13 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
27 |
717 |
-0.436 |
32.1% |
13 |
198.30 |
39.75 |
-0.217 |
20.6% |
13 |
92.9 |
-0.398 |
17.3% |
13 |
3.44 |
-0.404 |
17.5% |
13 |
63.4% |
0.367 |
18.1% |
13 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
0 |
778 |
1.000 |
73.7% |
7.2 |
67.32 |
47.63 |
1.000 |
95.1% |
7.2 |
49.0 |
1.000 |
43.5% |
7.2 |
1.81 |
1.000 |
43.3% |
7.2 |
26.5% |
1.000 |
49.3% |
7.2 |
STD |
|
|
25% |
27 |
431 |
-0.803 |
-20.1% |
7 |
164.02 |
15.15 |
-0.733 |
-16.4% |
7 |
69.8 |
-0.870 |
-34.0% |
7 |
2.62 |
-0.859 |
-33.7% |
7 |
30.6% |
-0.873 |
-43.1% |
7 |
|
|
|
75% |
27 |
1268 |
0.272 |
59.2% |
19 |
221.90 |
58.25 |
0.172 |
69.7% |
19 |
150.6 |
0.781 |
37.9% |
19 |
5.58 |
0.779 |
37.2% |
19 |
75.9% |
0.838 |
41.3% |
19 |
|
|
Four forecasts were disqualified. Three forecasts had entries for one station only. One forecast verified with an extreme outlier Z-score of 2.9 STD above the average.
***************************************************
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank
|
1st Place
For every inch of snow observed… 0.89” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 72% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
2nd Place
|
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
3rd Place
For every inch of snow observed …0.84” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 74% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
Honorable Mention
For every inch of snow observed …0.80” was
forecast. Forecast accounted for 72%
of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
Average stations per forecaster: 27
Stations with observed snowfall: 27
Minimum: 36.02” (Weathermbug)
Consensus Median: 198.3”
Maximum: 366“ (MarkHofmann)
Observed: 213.35”
Max single station: 23.9” @ ISP
Shutout: ALB
New Daily Records:
SAT...19-DEC-09
ISP - 9.6" (5.6"; 1995)
PHL - 22.5" (9.2"; 1945)
ACY - 11.4" (4.5"; 1979)
DCA - 15" (7"; 1945)
BOS - 10" (7.7"; 1995)
PVD - 14.3" (6.3; 1995)
ISP - 14.3" (4.2"; 1995)
JFK - 4.7" (3.8"; 1995)
EWR - 4.3" (3.2"; 1964)
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
wxfox51 |
BGR CON ALB RDU |
0.148 |
|
2 |
herb@maws |
CON BOS DCA |
0.111 |
|
2 |
nynjpaweather |
BOS BGM DCA |
0.111 |
|
4 |
emoran |
BTV BOS |
0.077 |
|
4 |
TQ |
IAD RDU |
0.077 |
|
6 |
donsutherland1 |
BOS BGM |
0.074 |
|
6 |
Newa2010 |
BTV ORF |
0.074 |
|
6 |
shillelagh |
BGR CON |
0.074 |
|
9 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
DCA |
0.037 |
|
9 |
Raven |
HYA |
0.037 |
|
9 |
millersville_bauers |
BDR |
0.037 |
|
9 |
nnjwxguy78 |
IAD |
0.037 |
|
9 |
weatherT |
ALB |
0.037 |
|
9 |
Dryslot |
ALB |
0.037 |
|
9 |
Mitchel Volk |
HYA |
0.037 |
|
9 |
bubbler86 |
DCA |
0.037 |
|
9 |
MikeDoughney |
BOS |
0.037 |
|
9 |
snowlover |
ALB |
0.037 |
|
9 |
jha |
ALB |
0.037 |
|
9 |
Weathermbug |
ALB |
0.037 |
|
9 |
defman27 |
ALB |
0.037 |
|
22 |
ilibov |
|
0.000 |
|
22 |
snowman |
|
0.000 |
|
22 |
Roger Smith |
|
0.000 |
|
22 |
MarkHofmann |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
TQ |
CAR ABE ACY IAD SBY RDU |
6 |
0.231 |
|
2 |
wxfox51 |
CAR BGR CON ALB ISP RDU |
6 |
0.222 |
|
3 |
Newa2010 |
CAR BTV ORH BWI ORF |
5 |
0.185 |
|
3 |
herb@maws |
CON BOS ORH EWR DCA |
5 |
0.185 |
|
3 |
shillelagh |
CAR BGR CON ORH ABE |
5 |
0.185 |
|
3 |
nynjpaweather |
CAR BOS ORH BGM DCA |
5 |
0.185 |
|
7 |
emoran |
CAR BTV BOS BWI |
4 |
0.154 |
|
8 |
millersville_bauers |
CAR BDR BDL JFK |
4 |
0.148 |
|
8 |
Dryslot |
CAR ORH ALB ABE |
4 |
0.148 |
|
10 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
ABE DCA SBY |
3 |
0.111 |
|
10 |
Raven |
CAR PWM HYA |
3 |
0.111 |
|
10 |
Weathermbug |
CAR ALB RIC |
3 |
0.111 |
|
13 |
donsutherland1 |
BOS BGM |
2 |
0.074 |
|
13 |
ilibov |
CAR MDT |
2 |
0.074 |
|
13 |
weatherT |
CAR ALB |
2 |
0.074 |
|
13 |
Mitchel Volk |
CAR HYA |
2 |
0.074 |
|
13 |
Roger Smith |
PVD PHL |
2 |
0.074 |
|
13 |
MikeDoughney |
CAR BOS |
2 |
0.074 |
|
13 |
snowlover |
CAR ALB |
2 |
0.074 |
|
13 |
jha |
CAR ALB |
2 |
0.074 |
|
13 |
defman27 |
CAR ALB |
2 |
0.074 |
|
22 |
nnjwxguy78 |
IAD |
1 |
0.037 |
|
22 |
snowman |
CAR |
1 |
0.037 |
|
22 |
bubbler86 |
DCA |
1 |
0.037 |
|
25 |
MarkHofmann |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
jha |
BOS HYA PVD BDR ISP JFK
PHL ACY |
8 |
0.296 |
|
1 |
Weathermbug |
BOS HYA PVD BDR ISP JFK
PHL ACY |
8 |
0.296 |
|
3 |
MarkHofmann |
CAR BGR PWM CON BTV ALB
BGM |
7 |
0.259 |
|
3 |
snowlover |
BOS HYA PVD BDR ISP JFK
IAD |
7 |
0.259 |
|
5 |
Roger Smith |
EWR BWI DCA |
3 |
0.111 |
|
5 |
MikeDoughney |
ORH ABE MDT |
3 |
0.111 |
|
5 |
defman27 |
RIC ORF RDU |
3 |
0.111 |
|
8 |
ilibov |
BDL |
1 |
0.037 |
|
8 |
Mitchel Volk |
SBY |
1 |
0.037 |
|
8 |
snowman |
ALB |
1 |
0.037 |
|
11 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
Newa2010 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
herb@maws |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
wxfox51 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
Raven |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
emoran |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
millersville_bauers |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
TQ |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
nnjwxguy78 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
shillelagh |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
weatherT |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
Dryslot |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
nynjpaweather |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
bubbler86 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
***********************************
***********************************
Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #1 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
Consensus forecast best @ ORH…BDR…ABE…MDT…IAD
MAX forecast best @ HYA…PVD…JFK…PHL
MAX forecast less than observed @ ISP
MIN forecasts best @ CAR…BGR…PWM…CON…BTV…ALB…BGM…SBY…RIC…ORF…RDU
MIN forecasts more than observed @
Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
|
22 |
CAR |
0.05 |
|
|
22 |
BGR |
0.05 |
|
|
19 |
PWM |
0.30 |
|
|
22 |
CON |
0.05 |
|
|
22 |
BTV |
0.05 |
|
|
11 |
BOS |
10.00 |
18.2 |
|
8 |
HYA |
14.00 |
|
|
14 |
ORH |
5.70 |
20.4 |
|
4 |
PVD |
16.00 |
18.2 |
|
12 |
BDR |
9.20 |
11.6 |
|
16 |
BDL |
3.50 |
18.4 |
|
27 |
ALB |
0.00 |
|
|
21 |
BGM |
0.10 |
|
|
1 |
ISP |
23.90 |
11.4 |
|
7 |
JFK |
14.50 |
14.9 |
|
15 |
ABE |
5.60 |
13.7 |
|
13 |
MDT |
8.80 |
13.3 |
|
2 |
PHL |
23.20 |
14.8 |
|
9 |
ACY |
12.10 |
14.1 |
|
10 |
EWR |
11.20 |
13.3 |
|
3 |
BWI |
20.50 |
13.3 |
|
4 |
IAD |
16.00 |
26.7 |
|
6 |
DCA |
15.00 |
37.5 |
|
17 |
SBY |
2.00 |
8.0 |
|
18 |
RIC |
1.40 |
|
|
20 |
ORF |
0.20 |
|
|
22 |
RDU |
0.05 |
|
|
|
TOT |
213.45 |
16.6 |
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Day 1
Day 2
Five-day 5H anomaly height correlations