Forecasters: 12

10 veterans
2 rookies

 

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

 

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

 

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Forecaster

Class

4casts

Sum Square

STP

TOTAL Absolute

AVG Absolute

 

 

 

 

 

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

169.90

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Forecaster

donsutherland1

Chief

27

106.0

-0.945

63.8%

1

  174.40

4.50

-0.881

85.6%

3

42.50

-1.048

36.7%

2

1.57

-1.048

36.7%

2

66.4%

0.963

55.4%

2

donsutherland1

herb@maws

Senior

27

116.8

-0.890

60.1%

2

  147.85

22.05

-0.303

29.4%

7

42.05

-1.067

37.4%

1

1.56

-1.067

37.4%

1

70.9%

1.150

66.1%

1

herb@maws

dmcguriman

Senior

27

127.0

-0.839

56.6%

3

  182.20

12.30

-0.624

60.6%

5

45.30

-0.929

32.5%

3

1.68

-0.929

32.5%

3

60.2%

0.713

41.0%

5

dmcguriman

Raven

Senior

27

164.0

-0.651

44.0%

4

  174.20

4.30

-0.887

86.2%

2

50.50

-0.708

24.8%

4

1.87

-0.708

24.8%

4

51.9%

0.374

21.5%

7

Raven

emoran

Senior

27

191.3

-0.513

34.6%

5

  201.00

31.10

-0.005

0.5%

8

57.70

-0.401

14.1%

6

2.14

-0.401

14.1%

6

63.6%

0.852

49.0%

4

emoran

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

27

197.3

-0.483

32.6%

6

  180.75

10.85

-0.672

65.3%

4

53.65

-0.574

20.1%

5

1.99

-0.574

20.1%

5

38.0%

-0.191

-11.0%

8

Donald Rosenfeld

shanabe

Senior

27

218.0

-0.378

25.5%

7

  126.00

43.90

0.417

-40.5%

9

58.70

-0.359

12.6%

7

2.17

-0.359

12.6%

7

52.0%

0.379

21.8%

6

shanabe

Mitchel Volk

Senior

27

255.5

-0.188

12.7%

8

  217.50

47.60

0.539

-52.4%

10

67.00

-0.006

0.2%

8

2.48

-0.006

0.2%

8

64.4%

0.882

50.7%

3

Mitchel Volk

TQ

Senior

27

402.9

0.559

-37.7%

9

  100.60

69.30

1.254

-121.8%

11

87.90

0.883

-30.9%

10

3.26

0.883

-30.9%

10

25.6%

-0.697

-40.1%

9

TQ

jackzig

Senior

27

414.1

0.615

-41.5%

10

  152.00

17.90

-0.439

42.7%

6

86.30

0.815

-28.5%

9

3.20

0.815

-28.5%

9

0.0%

-1.739

-100.0%

12

jackzig

answered7

Rookie

27

524.5

1.174

-79.3%

11

  172.90

3.00

-0.930

90.4%

1

94.40

1.159

-40.6%

11

3.50

1.159

-40.6%

11

19.2%

-0.958

-55.1%

10

answered7

weatherT

Rookie

27

793.7

2.538

-171.3%

12

   61.80

108.10

2.532

-246.0%

12

119.70

2.235

-78.3%

12

4.43

2.235

-78.3%

12

0.3%

-1.729

-99.4%

11

weatherT

Forecast Parameters

324

Error

Error Z

% MPRV

Rank

STP

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPRV

Rank

Forecast Parameters

MIN

27

106

-0.945

-171.3%

1

61.80

3.00

-0.930

-246.0%

1

42.1

-1.067

-78.3%

1

1.56

-1.067

-78.3%

1

0.0%

-1.739

-100.0%

      1

MIN

MAX

27

794

2.538

63.8%

12

217.50

108.10

2.532

90.4%

12

119.7

2.235

37.4%

12

4.43

2.235

37.4%

12

70.9%

1.150

66.1%

    12

MAX

AVG

27

293

0.000

0.0%

7

157.60

31.24

0.000

0.0%

7

67.1

0.000

0.0%

7

2.49

0.000

0.0%

7

42.7%

0.000

0.0%

      7

AVG

Median

27

208

-0.430

29.0%

7

173.55

19.98

-0.371

36.1%

7

58.2

-0.380

13.3%

7

2.16

-0.380

13.3%

7

51.9%

0.377

21.6%

      7

Median

Mode

27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mode

STD

0

197

1.000

67.5%

3.5

41.79

30.36

1.000

97.2%

3.5

23.5

1.000

35.0%

3.5

0.87

1.000

35.0%

3.5

24.5%

1.000

57.5%

   3.5

STD

25%

27

155

-0.698

-38.7%

4

142.39

9.26

-0.724

-43.5%

4

49.2

-0.763

-29.1%

4

1.82

-0.763

-29.1%

4

24.0%

-0.762

-43.8%

      4

 

75%

27

406

0.573

47.1%

9

181.11

44.82

0.447

70.4%

9

86.7

0.832

26.7%

9

3.21

0.832

26.7%

9

63.8%

0.860

49.4%

      9

 

 

 

***************************************************

Snow Storm #x - Results Summary

 

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error

(number):  category rank

 

1st Place

donsutherland1

SUMSQ:

106.03

 

SUMSQ Z:

-0.945

 

STP:

4.50

 (3)

TAE:

42.50

 (2)

AAE:

1.57

 (2)

 

For every inch of snow observed… 0.97” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 61% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

2nd Place

herb@maws

SUMSQ:

116.82

 

SUMSQ Z:

-0.890

 

STP:

22.05

 (7)

TAE:

42.05

 (1)

AAE:

1.56

 (1)

 

For every inch of snow observed …0.87” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 71% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

3rd Place

dmcguriman

SUMSQ:

127.03

 

SUMSQ Z:

-0.839

 

STP:

12.30

 (5)

TAE:

45.30

 (3)

AAE:

1.68

 (3)

 

For every inch of snow observed …0.99” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 45% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

Honorable Mention

Raven

SUMSQ:

163.97

 

SUMSQ Z:

-0.651

 

STP:

4.30

 (2)

TAE:

50.50

 (4)

AAE:

1.87

 (4)

 

 For every inch of snow observed …0.96” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 44% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

***************************************************

 

Station forecasts: 324

Average stations per forecaster:  27

Stations with observed snowfall:  27

 

Storm-total precipitation (STP), all stations:

Forecast

Minimum:  61.8” (weatherT)

Consensus Median: 173.6”

Maximum:  217.5“ (Mitchel Volk)

 

Observed: 169.9”

            Max single station:  ISP 13.5”

Shutout:  none

 

New Daily Records:
SUN...01 MAR 2009

ACY - 4.6" (1.7"; 1968)

ISP - 3.8" (2.1"; 2005)

 

MON...02 MAR 2009

PVD - 10" (7.1"; 1996)

ISP - 9.7" (5"; 1996)

ORH - 9.3" (7"; 1948)

BDL - 7.9" (7.9"; 1948)

BDR - 7.6" (4.5"; 2006)

PHL - 5.6" (5"; 1914)

EWR - 5.3" (4.3"; 1996)

BWI - 4.7" (3.7"; 1969)

 

Perfect Forecasts

Rank

Forecaster

'Perfect Forecast' Stations

bat avg

1

emoran

ORF

0.037

1

shanabe

SBY

0.037

 

Best Station Forecasts  (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Rank

Forecaster

'Lowest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

1

donsutherland1

HYA ORH ABE MDT PHL DCA

6

0.222

1

shanabe

CAR BGR MDT ACY SBY RDU

6

0.222

3

Donald Rosenfeld

MDT BWI IAD DCA RIC

5

0.185

3

herb@maws

PWM BOS ALB ACY EWR

5

0.185

3

Raven

BOS JFK ACY EWR DCA

5

0.185

6

dmcguriman

CON BOS ORH BDR

4

0.148

6

emoran

CAR MDT DCA ORF

4

0.148

6

Mitchel Volk

PVD BGM ISP RIC

4

0.148

9

answered7

BTV BDL

2

0.074

10

jackzig

HYA

1

0.037

11

TQ

 

0

0.000

11

weatherT

 

0

0.000

 

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Forecaster

'Highest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

weatherT

CON BTV ORH PVD BDR BDL ISP JFK ABE PHL EWR BWI IAD DCA

14

0.519

answered7

CAR PWM BOS HYA MDT RDU

6

0.222

herb@maws

SBY RIC

2

0.074

jackzig

ALB BGM

2

0.074

dmcguriman

BGR

1

0.037

Donald Rosenfeld

ORF

1

0.037

emoran

BGR

1

0.037

Mitchel Volk

ACY

1

0.037

TQ

DCA

1

0.037

donsutherland1

 

0

0.000

Raven

 

0

0.000

shanabe

 

0

0.000

 

***********************************

Congratulations to the Winners!

 

***********************************

Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #8 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

 

Consensus forecast best @ CAR PWM BOS ORH BDL ALB JFK ABE MDT ACY EWR BWI SBY RDU

MAX forecast best @ BTV PVD ISP RIC

MAX forecast less than observed @ RIC

MIN forecasts best @ BGM ORF

MIN forecasts more than observed @ none

 

 

Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

 

*******************************

Verification:

Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins

 

Rank

Station

Snow

SN:H2O

    18

CAR

   5.40

   14.6

    14

BGR

   6.20

   29.5

      7

PWM

   8.60

   20.0

      3

CON

 11.30

   13.5

    19

BTV

   5.00

   45.5

      8

BOS

   8.50

   11.3

    25

HYA

   2.00

   10.0

      4

ORH

 10.30

   10.7

      2

PVD

 11.60

   12.1

      5

BDR

   9.70

   15.4

      9

BDL

   8.00

   10.1

    24

ALB

   2.10

  105.0

    27

BGM

   0.40

   40.0

      1

ISP

 13.50

   14.4

    10

JFK

   6.90

   13.8

    20

ABE

   4.10

   14.6

    23

MDT

   2.30

   28.8

      6

PHL

   9.00

   16.7

    12

ACY

   6.80

 

    10

EWR

   6.90

   13.5

    16

BWI

   5.80

   11.6

    15

IAD

   6.00

   12.0

    17

DCA

   5.50

   11.0

    21

SBY

   4.00

 

    13

RIC

   6.30

 

    26

ORF

   0.50

     5.6

    22

RDU

   3.20

   10.7

 

TOT

169.90

   20.4

 

 

*******************************

Storm Notes

 

Surface Analysis

 

5H NHEMI

 

5H NOAM

 

5H height-falls

 

IR

 

VIS

 

H2Ov

 

Radar

 

Tele-connections

 

Five-day 5H anomaly height correlations

 

 

Five-day height error