Forecasters: 14

11 veterans
3 rookies

 

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

 

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

 

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Forecaster

Class

4casts

Sum Square

STP

TOTAL Absolute

AVG Absolute

 

 

 

 

 

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

98.45

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Forecaster

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

25

56.4

-1.318

46.7%

1

   91.05

7.40

-1.101

60.6%

3

28.00

-1.645

29.1%

1

1.12

-1.609

28.9%

1

70.8%

0.459

7.9%

5

Donald Rosenfeld

skigirl

Rookie

26

57.7

-1.283

45.5%

2

   90.77

7.68

-1.074

59.1%

4

31.68

-1.118

19.8%

3

1.22

-1.261

22.7%

3

73.3%

0.683

11.8%

2

skigirl

shanabe

Senior

25

60.6

-1.205

42.7%

3

  117.80

19.35

0.055

-3.0%

7

30.05

-1.351

23.9%

2

1.20

-1.319

23.7%

2

89.2%

2.086

36.0%

1

shanabe

Raven

Senior

25

68.2

-1.003

35.5%

4

   86.50

11.95

-0.661

36.4%

5

32.15

-1.051

18.6%

4

1.29

-1.023

18.4%

4

71.9%

0.558

9.6%

4

Raven

weatherT

Rookie

25

87.4

-0.490

17.4%

5

   98.40

0.05

-1.812

99.7%

1

37.65

-0.263

4.6%

5

1.51

-0.247

4.4%

5

69.3%

0.331

5.7%

6

weatherT

emoran

Senior

25

89.0

-0.447

15.8%

6

  119.00

20.55

0.171

-9.4%

8

39.25

-0.034

0.6%

6

1.57

-0.021

0.4%

6

68.0%

0.216

3.7%

7

emoran

anthony

Rookie

25

99.6

-0.164

5.8%

7

   73.30

25.15

0.616

-33.9%

9

39.35

-0.019

0.3%

7

1.57

-0.007

0.1%

7

64.0%

-0.137

-2.4%

9

anthony

wxduff

Intern

25

114.2

0.226

-8.0%

8

   83.15

15.30

-0.337

18.6%

6

45.30

0.833

-14.7%

12

1.81

0.833

-15.0%

12

58.9%

-0.589

-10.2%

12

wxduff

donsutherland1

Chief

25

120.8

0.402

-14.2%

9

  125.90

27.45

0.838

-46.1%

11

43.85

0.625

-11.1%

11

1.75

0.629

-11.3%

11

62.7%

-0.251

-4.3%

10

donsutherland1

TQ

Senior

25

122.3

0.442

-15.7%

10

  126.05

27.60

0.853

-46.9%

12

41.00

0.217

-3.8%

9

1.64

0.226

-4.1%

9

65.4%

-0.014

-0.2%

8

TQ

Mitchel Volk

Senior

25

125.0

0.514

-18.2%

11

  124.50

26.05

0.703

-38.7%

10

40.65

0.167

-3.0%

8

1.63

0.177

-3.2%

8

62.0%

-0.314

-5.4%

11

Mitchel Volk

Herb@MAWS

Senior

25

138.4

0.871

-30.9%

12

   91.35

7.10

-1.130

62.2%

2

46.10

0.948

-16.8%

13

1.84

0.946

-17.0%

13

37.9%

-2.442

-42.2%

14

Herb@MAWS

dmcguriman

Senior

25

156.3

1.349

-47.8%

13

  133.55

35.10

1.578

-86.9%

14

43.10

0.518

-9.2%

10

1.72

0.523

-9.4%

10

73.1%

0.666

11.5%

3

dmcguriman

ilibov

Senior

25

184.7

2.107

-74.6%

14

  130.70

32.25

1.302

-71.7%

13

54.65

2.172

-38.4%

14

2.19

2.153

-38.7%

14

51.4%

-1.252

-21.6%

13

ilibov

Forecast Parameters

351

Error

Error Z

% MPRV

Rank

STP

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPRV

Rank

Forecast Parameters

MIN

25

56

-1.318

-74.6%

1

73.30

0.05

-1.812

-86.9%

1

28.0

-1.645

-38.4%

1

1.12

-1.609

-38.7%

1

37.9%

-2.442

-42.2%

      1

MIN

MAX

26

185

2.107

46.7%

14

133.55

35.10

1.578

99.7%

14

54.7

2.172

29.1%

14

2.19

2.153

28.9%

14

89.2%

2.086

36.0%

    14

MAX

AVG

25

106

0.000

0.0%

8

106.57

18.78

0.000

0.0%

8

39.5

0.000

0.0%

8

1.58

0.000

0.0%

8

65.6%

0.000

0.0%

      8

AVG

Median

25

107

0.031

-1.1%

8

108.10

19.95

0.113

-6.2%

8

40.0

0.074

-1.3%

8

1.60

0.085

-1.5%

8

66.7%

0.101

1.7%

      8

Median

Mode

25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mode

STD

0

37

1.000

35.4%

4.0

19.84

10.34

1.000

55.0%

4.0

7.0

1.000

17.7%

4.0

0.28

1.000

18.0%

4.0

11.3%

1.000

17.3%

   4.0

STD

25%

25

73

-0.875

-17.6%

4

90.84

8.75

-0.971

-44.3%

4

33.5

-0.854

-10.6%

4

1.34

-0.829

-10.8%

4

62.2%

-0.298

-5.2%

      4

 

75%

25

124

0.496

31.0%

11

125.55

27.10

0.804

53.4%

11

43.7

0.599

15.1%

11

1.75

0.602

14.9%

11

71.6%

0.533

9.2%

    11

 

 

 

***************************************************

Snow Storm #7 - Results Summary

 

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error

(number):  category rank

 

1st Place

Donald Rosenfeld

SUMSQ:

56.35

 

SUMSQ Z:

-1.318

 

STP:

7.40

 (3)

TAE:

28.00

 (1)

AAE:

1.12

 (1)

 

For every inch of snow observed… 0.89” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 70% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

2nd Place

skigirl

SUMSQ:

57.67

 

SUMSQ Z:

-1.283

 

STP:

7.68

 (4)

TAE:

31.68

 (3)

AAE:

1.22

 (3)

 

For every inch of snow observed …0.92” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 73% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

3rd Place

shanabe

SUMSQ:

60.60

 

SUMSQ Z:

-1.205

 

STP:

19.35

 (7)

TAE:

30.05

 (2)

AAE:

1.20

 (2)

 

 

For every inch of snow observed …1.22” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 89% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

Honorable Mention

Raven

SUMSQ:

68.15

 

SUMSQ Z:

-1.003

 

STP:

11.95

 (5)

TAE:

32.15

 (4)

AAE:

1.29

 (4)

 

 For every inch of snow observed …0.90” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 72% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

***************************************************

 

Station forecasts: 351

Average stations per forecaster:  25

Stations with observed snowfall:  25

 

Storm-total precipitation (STP), all stations:

Forecast

Minimum:  73.3” (anthony)

Consensus Median: 108.1”

Maximum:  133.55“ (dmcguriman)

 

Observed: 97.7””

            Max single station: 10.4” @ CON

Shutout:  ORF RDU

 

New Daily Records:
BTV: 9.1" (5.3"; 1958)

BGM: 5.9" (5.1"; 2004)

 

Perfect Forecasts

Rank

Forecaster

'Perfect Forecast' Stations

bat avg

1

TQ

ORH PHL RIC

0.120

2

emoran

CAR PHL

0.080

2

dmcguriman

IAD RIC

0.080

4

Donald Rosenfeld

BDR

0.040

4

Raven

BGR

0.040

4

donsutherland1

HYA

0.040

4

Mitchel Volk

PHL

0.040

4

Herb@MAWS

RIC

0.040

9

skigirl

RIC

0.038

 

Best Station Forecasts  (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Rank

Forecaster

'Lowest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

1

Donald Rosenfeld

PWM BDR ALB BGM MDT BWI

6

0.240

2

TQ

BOS ORH ABE PHL RIC

5

0.200

3

Mitchel Volk

ISP PHL ACY BWI

4

0.160

3

dmcguriman

BTV BWI IAD RIC

4

0.160

5

shanabe

CON BOS JFK

3

0.120

5

Herb@MAWS

BWI DCA RIC

3

0.120

7

skigirl

BDL SBY RIC

3

0.115

8

Raven

BGR EWR

2

0.080

8

emoran

CAR PHL

2

0.080

8

anthony

PVD BDL

2

0.080

11

weatherT

BDL

1

0.040

11

wxduff

MDT

1

0.040

11

donsutherland1

HYA

1

0.040

14

ilibov

 

0

0.000

 

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Rank

Forecaster

'Highest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

1

ilibov

BOS PVD ALB BGM JFK ABE EWR

7

0.280

2

skigirl

ISP PHL DCA ORF

4

0.154

3

TQ

PWM BWI IAD

3

0.120

3

Herb@MAWS

CAR CON ACY

3

0.120

3

dmcguriman

BGR BDL MDT

3

0.120

6

shanabe

BGR SBY

2

0.080

6

Raven

CON BDR

2

0.080

6

anthony

BTV SBY

2

0.080

6

Mitchel Volk

HYA ORH

2

0.080

10

weatherT

DCA

1

0.040

10

wxduff

DCA

1

0.040

10

donsutherland1

RIC

1

0.040

13

Donald Rosenfeld

 

0

0.000

13

emoran

 

0

0.000

 

***********************************

Congratulations to the Winners!

 

***********************************

Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #7 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Consensus forecast best @ HYA…BDR…ISP…JFK…BWI

MAX forecast best @ CAR…CON

MAX forecast less than observed - none 

MIN forecasts best @ BDL

MIN forecasts more than observed - none

 

 

Fair association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

 

*******************************

Verification:

Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins

 

Rank

Station

Snow

SN:H2O

      3

CAR

   7.00

 

      6

BGR

   6.00

 

      4

PWM

   6.30

 

      1

CON

 10.40

 

      2

BTV

   9.10

 

      9

BOS

   4.30

 

    19

HYA

   2.20

  

      8

ORH

   4.50

 

    16

PVD

   2.40

 

    10

BDR

   4.00

 

    12

BDL

   3.40

 

      7

ALB

   5.90

 

      4

BGM

   6.30

 

    13

ISP

   3.10

 

    18

JFK

   2.30

 

    11

ABE

   3.80

 

    15

MDT

   2.70

 

    14

PHL

   3.00

 

    19

ACY

   2.20

 

    16

EWR

   2.40

 

    21

BWI

   1.90

 

    23

IAD

   1.80

 

    21

DCA

   1.90

 

    24

SBY

   1.50

 

    25

RIC

   0.05

 

 

ORF

      -  

 

 

RDU

      -  

 

 

TOT

98.45

#DIV/0!

 

HYA STP estimated from METAR 6-group data @ 10:1 in good agreement with vicinity reports carried in BOSPNS.  Most stations snowfall was contaminated by rain making SN:H2O calculation too difficult.

 

*******************************

Storm Notes

 

Surface Analysis

 

 

 

 

5H NHEMI

 

 

 

 

5H change

 

 

IR

 

 

VIS

 

H2Ov

 

 

Radar

 

 

Tele-connections

 

Five-day 5H anomaly height correlations

 

Five-day height error