Forecasters: 13
11 veterans
2 rookies
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
83.25 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
24 |
84.0 |
-1.285 |
54.1% |
1 |
68.90 |
14.35 |
-1.770 |
53.8% |
1 |
32.15 |
-1.222 |
26.8% |
1 |
1.34 |
-1.624 |
30.9% |
1 |
79.7% |
0.911 |
24.4% |
1 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
Raven |
Senior |
22 |
117.9 |
-0.846 |
35.6% |
2 |
56.50 |
26.75 |
-0.455 |
13.8% |
5 |
36.25 |
-0.797 |
17.5% |
3 |
1.65 |
-0.790 |
15.0% |
4 |
76.8% |
0.742 |
19.9% |
3 |
Raven |
|
Newa |
Journeyman |
24 |
122.2 |
-0.791 |
33.3% |
3 |
57.45 |
25.80 |
-0.555 |
16.9% |
4 |
38.90 |
-0.522 |
11.5% |
5 |
1.62 |
-0.863 |
16.4% |
3 |
77.2% |
0.766 |
20.5% |
2 |
Newa |
|
Mitchel Volk |
Senior |
23 |
123.4 |
-0.774 |
32.6% |
4 |
63.00 |
20.25 |
-1.144 |
34.8% |
2 |
38.15 |
-0.600 |
13.2% |
4 |
1.66 |
-0.760 |
14.5% |
5 |
72.4% |
0.486 |
13.0% |
5 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
donsutherland1 |
Chief |
22 |
131.9 |
-0.664 |
28.0% |
5 |
53.00 |
30.25 |
-0.084 |
2.5% |
7 |
33.75 |
-1.056 |
23.2% |
2 |
1.53 |
-1.097 |
20.9% |
2 |
75.7% |
0.679 |
18.2% |
4 |
donsutherland1 |
|
anthony |
Rookie |
22 |
138.8 |
-0.574 |
24.2% |
6 |
60.00 |
23.25 |
-0.826 |
25.1% |
3 |
39.65 |
-0.444 |
9.7% |
6 |
1.80 |
-0.372 |
7.1% |
6 |
65.4% |
0.076 |
2.0% |
9 |
anthony |
|
bruced39 |
Journeyman |
21 |
174.2 |
-0.116 |
4.9% |
7 |
53.65 |
29.60 |
-0.153 |
4.6% |
6 |
43.90 |
-0.003 |
0.1% |
7 |
2.09 |
0.408 |
-7.8% |
9 |
58.9% |
-0.300 |
-8.0% |
11 |
bruced39 |
|
ilibov |
Senior |
22 |
190.2 |
0.092 |
-3.9% |
8 |
49.50 |
33.75 |
0.288 |
-8.7% |
10 |
44.45 |
0.054 |
-1.2% |
9 |
2.02 |
0.219 |
-4.2% |
8 |
68.6% |
0.267 |
7.1% |
7 |
ilibov |
|
herb@maws |
Senior |
22 |
194.0 |
0.141 |
-5.9% |
9 |
52.15 |
31.10 |
0.006 |
-0.2% |
8 |
44.00 |
0.007 |
-0.2% |
8 |
2.00 |
0.164 |
-3.1% |
7 |
62.2% |
-0.106 |
-2.8% |
10 |
herb@maws |
|
weatherT |
Rookie |
22 |
224.2 |
0.533 |
-22.4% |
10 |
34.90 |
48.35 |
1.836 |
-55.8% |
13 |
50.85 |
0.718 |
-15.8% |
12 |
2.31 |
1.006 |
-19.2% |
12 |
71.1% |
0.411 |
11.0% |
6 |
weatherT |
|
TQ |
Senior |
22 |
229.1 |
0.596 |
-25.1% |
11 |
49.70 |
33.55 |
0.266 |
-8.1% |
9 |
47.85 |
0.407 |
-8.9% |
10 |
2.17 |
0.637 |
-12.1% |
10 |
46.2% |
-1.045 |
-27.9% |
12 |
TQ |
|
jackzig |
Senior |
22 |
266.7 |
1.085 |
-45.7% |
12 |
122.00 |
38.75 |
0.818 |
-24.9% |
11 |
50.35 |
0.666 |
-14.6% |
11 |
2.29 |
0.945 |
-18.0% |
11 |
65.6% |
0.093 |
2.5% |
8 |
jackzig |
|
defman27 |
Intern |
26 |
383.7 |
2.603 |
-109.6% |
13 |
35.50 |
47.75 |
1.772 |
-53.8% |
12 |
70.85 |
2.793 |
-61.3% |
13 |
2.72 |
2.126 |
-40.5% |
13 |
13.0% |
-2.981 |
-79.7% |
13 |
defman27 |
|
Forecast
Parameters |
294 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
21 |
84 |
-1.285 |
-109.6% |
1 |
34.90 |
14.35 |
-1.770 |
-55.8% |
1 |
32.1 |
-1.222 |
-61.3% |
1 |
1.34 |
-1.624 |
-40.5% |
1 |
13.0% |
-2.981 |
-79.7% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
26 |
384 |
2.603 |
54.1% |
13 |
122.00 |
48.35 |
1.836 |
53.8% |
13 |
70.8 |
2.793 |
26.8% |
13 |
2.72 |
2.126 |
30.9% |
13 |
79.7% |
0.911 |
24.4% |
13 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
23 |
183 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
58.18 |
31.04 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
43.9 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
1.94 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
64.1% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
22 |
174 |
-0.116 |
4.9% |
7 |
53.65 |
30.25 |
-0.084 |
2.5% |
7 |
43.9 |
-0.003 |
0.1% |
7 |
2.00 |
0.164 |
-3.1% |
7 |
68.6% |
0.267 |
7.1% |
7 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
1 |
77 |
1.000 |
42.1% |
3.7 |
20.58 |
9.43 |
1.000 |
30.4% |
3.7 |
9.6 |
1.000 |
21.9% |
3.7 |
0.37 |
1.000 |
19.0% |
3.7 |
17.1% |
1.000 |
26.7% |
3.7 |
STD |
|
|
25% |
22 |
123 |
-0.774 |
-22.4% |
4 |
49.70 |
25.80 |
-0.555 |
-8.7% |
4 |
38.1 |
-0.600 |
-8.9% |
4 |
1.65 |
-0.790 |
-12.1% |
4 |
62.2% |
-0.106 |
-2.8% |
4 |
|
|
|
75% |
23 |
224 |
0.533 |
32.6% |
10 |
60.00 |
33.75 |
0.288 |
16.9% |
10 |
47.8 |
0.407 |
13.2% |
10 |
2.17 |
0.637 |
15.0% |
10 |
75.7% |
0.679 |
18.2% |
10 |
|
|
***************************************************
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank
|
1st
Place
For every inch of snow observed… 0.74” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 78.0% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
2nd
Place
For every inch of snow observed …0.64” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 76.0% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
3rd Place
For every inch of snow observed …0.62” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 75% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
Honorable Mention
For every inch of snow observed …0.64” was
forecast. Forecast accounted for 68%
of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
Average stations per forecaster: 23
Stations with observed snowfall: 22
Minimum: 34.9” (weatherT)
Consensus Median: 53.65””
Maximum: 122 “ (jackzig)
Observed: 83.25”
Max single station: 11.5” @ PWM
Shutout: BWI IAD DCA RIC RDU
New Daily Records:
PWM - 11.5" (11.2"; 1979)
CON - 10.3" (7.7"; 1994)
ORH - 8.2" (6.5"; 1948)
BGM - 3.8" (2.5"; 1978)
One daily record tied.
PVD - 7.5" (7.5"; 1948)
Perfect Forecasts
None
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
jackzig |
CON BOS ORH PVD BGM JFK
SBY ORF |
8 |
0.364 |
|
2 |
donsutherland1 |
BGR HYA PHL ACY SBY ORF |
6 |
0.273 |
|
3 |
herb@maws |
BDR ISP JFK SBY ORF |
5 |
0.227 |
|
4 |
Mitchel Volk |
CAR BGR ALB SBY ORF |
5 |
0.217 |
|
5 |
bruced39 |
ALB BGM SBY ORF |
4 |
0.190 |
|
6 |
Raven |
PWM BTV SBY ORF |
4 |
0.182 |
|
6 |
anthony |
CAR MDT SBY ORF |
4 |
0.182 |
|
8 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
CAR ISP SBY ORF |
4 |
0.167 |
|
8 |
Newa |
BDR ALB SBY ORF |
4 |
0.167 |
|
10 |
ilibov |
BDL SBY ORF |
3 |
0.136 |
|
11 |
weatherT |
SBY ORF |
2 |
0.091 |
|
11 |
TQ |
SBY ORF |
2 |
0.091 |
|
13 |
defman27 |
ABE EWR |
2 |
0.077 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
defman27 |
PWM CON BOS ORH BGM MDT
PHL ACY BWI IAD DCA SBY RIC ORF |
14 |
0.538 |
|
jackzig |
CAR BGR BTV HYA BDR ABE |
6 |
0.273 |
|
bruced39 |
ISP JFK EWR |
3 |
0.143 |
|
weatherT |
PVD BDL ABE |
3 |
0.136 |
|
TQ |
ALB ISP JFK |
3 |
0.136 |
|
anthony |
ISP JFK |
2 |
0.091 |
|
Mitchel Volk |
RDU |
1 |
0.043 |
|
Newa |
ABE |
1 |
0.042 |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
Raven |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
donsutherland1 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
ilibov |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
herb@maws |
|
0 |
0.000 |
***********************************
***********************************
Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm # to see the complete station forecast verification table.
Consensus forecast best @ CAR…BGR…BDR…ALB…ABE
MAX forecast best @ PWM…CON…BOS…ORH…PVD…ISP…MDT…EWR
MAX forecast less than observed @ CON…BOS…ORH
MIN forecasts best @ BTV…HYA
MIN forecasts more than observed: none
Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…and F6 bulletins
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
|
8 |
CAR |
4.30 |
8.1 |
|
4 |
BGR |
8.30 |
25.9 |
|
1 |
PWM |
11.50 |
19.2 |
|
2 |
CON |
10.30 |
18.4 |
|
17 |
BTV |
1.20 |
12.0 |
|
3 |
BOS |
9.30 |
25.1 |
|
20 |
HYA |
0.05 |
|
|
5 |
ORH |
8.20 |
21.0 |
|
6 |
PVD |
7.50 |
13.2 |
|
14 |
BDR |
1.70 |
15.5 |
|
7 |
BDL |
4.40 |
17.6 |
|
10 |
ALB |
3.00 |
18.8 |
|
9 |
BGM |
3.80 |
42.2 |
|
11 |
ISP |
2.20 |
16.9 |
|
12 |
JFK |
1.80 |
9.0 |
|
15 |
ABE |
1.60 |
17.8 |
|
16 |
MDT |
1.50 |
25.0 |
|
19 |
PHL |
0.10 |
25.0 |
|
18 |
ACY |
0.60 |
20.0 |
|
12 |
EWR |
1.80 |
12.9 |
|
|
BWI |
-
|
|
|
|
IAD |
-
|
|
|
|
DCA |
-
|
|
|
20 |
SBY |
0.05 |
|
|
|
RIC |
-
|
|
|
20 |
ORF |
0.05 |
|
|
|
RDU |
-
|
|
|
|
TOT |
83.25 |
19.1 |
CAR SN:H2O was the one of two suspect reports...given the low densities reported by most other forecast stations. Storm-total snowfall amount looks reasonable in comparison to vicinity reports carried in the PNS; therefore...no adjustment indicated.
A listing in WFO CAR/s summary report for BGR/s FSS carried a two-day snowfall of 11.2" as of 8:00 AM EST MON...JAN 19…that was at odds with preliminary verification value of 4.4” taken from BGR/s JAN 18 CDUS41 bulletin.
BGR/s two-day storm-total liquid precipitation...as reported in METAR 6- and 7-groups... totaled 0.43"...of which 0.32" fell before the end of the verification period (11:59 PM EST SUN...18 JAN).
The density of 11.2" frozen precipitation from 0.43" of liquid precipitation is 26:1. If the same SN:H2O is applied to the 0.32" liquid observed during the verification period...an adjusted BGR snowfall total of 8.3" seems reasonable.
*******************************
Five-day 5H anomaly height correlations