Forecasters: 19

14 veterans
5 rookies…including 1 first-timer

 

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

 

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

 

Final Standings - all Forecasters

 

Forecaster

Class

4casts

Sum Square

STP

TOTAL Absolute

AVG Absolute

 

 

 

 

 

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

58.10

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Forecaster

emoran

Senior

23

68.8

-1.352

66.4%

1

   71.21

13.11

-0.807

46.7%

5

29.90

-1.545

43.1%

1

1.30

-1.728

47.4%

1

62.9%

1.524

89.4%

2

emoran

anthony

Rookie

20

75.1

-1.290

63.4%

2

   67.45

9.35

-1.071

61.9%

4

31.85

-1.412

39.4%

2

1.59

-1.297

35.5%

2

57.1%

1.224

71.7%

4

anthony

donsutherland1

Chief

21

96.0

-1.082

53.2%

3

   78.95

20.85

-0.262

15.2%

8

34.35

-1.242

34.6%

3

1.64

-1.233

33.8%

3

61.1%

1.430

83.8%

3

donsutherland1

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

20

101.6

-1.026

50.4%

4

   57.25

0.85

-1.669

96.6%

2

35.55

-1.160

32.4%

4

1.78

-1.023

28.0%

4

34.1%

0.044

2.6%

8

Donald Rosenfeld

shanabe

Senior

20

114.6

-0.897

44.1%

5

   84.00

25.90

0.093

-5.4%

9

36.30

-1.109

30.9%

5

1.81

-0.968

26.5%

5

63.2%

1.535

90.0%

1

shanabe

Don Rooney

Senior

21

137.5

-0.670

32.9%

6

   72.70

14.60

-0.701

40.6%

6

42.20

-0.707

19.7%

6

2.01

-0.681

18.7%

6

47.0%

0.704

41.3%

6

Don Rooney

MarkHofmann

Rookie

23

146.4

-0.582

28.6%

7

  102.00

43.90

1.359

-78.6%

18

48.50

-0.277

7.7%

9

2.11

-0.534

14.6%

7

49.8%

0.849

49.8%

5

MarkHofmann

TrekkerCC

Intern

20

154.5

-0.501

24.6%

8

   60.06

1.95

-1.591

92.0%

3

43.45

-0.622

17.3%

7

2.17

-0.440

12.1%

8

29.1%

-0.215

-12.6%

12

TrekkerCC

Mitchel Volk

Senior

20

161.6

-0.431

21.2%

9

   85.00

26.90

0.164

-9.5%

10

45.50

-0.482

13.4%

8

2.27

-0.289

7.9%

9

46.8%

0.695

40.7%

7

Mitchel Volk

herb@maws

Senior

21

189.4

-0.154

7.6%

10

   74.40

16.30

-0.582

33.7%

7

53.00

0.030

-0.8%

10

2.52

0.079

-2.2%

10

21.7%

-0.591

-34.6%

14

herb@maws

jackzig

Senior

22

204.2

-0.008

0.4%

11

   98.00

39.90

1.078

-62.4%

17

57.00

0.303

-8.4%

11

2.59

0.178

-4.9%

11

29.9%

-0.171

-10.0%

10

jackzig

skiGirl

Rookie

24

248.2

0.430

-21.1%

12

   57.46

0.65

-1.683

97.4%

1

65.15

0.858

-23.9%

14

2.71

0.361

-9.9%

12

0.3%

-1.692

-99.2%

19

skiGirl

Raven

Senior

21

260.0

0.547

-26.9%

13

   94.20

36.10

0.811

-46.9%

15

64.70

0.827

-23.1%

13

3.08

0.902

-24.7%

16

29.4%

-0.199

-11.7%

11

Raven

TQ

Senior

21

264.3

0.589

-28.9%

14

   90.15

32.05

0.526

-30.4%

11

61.85

0.633

-17.7%

12

2.95

0.701

-19.2%

13

30.9%

-0.119

-7.0%

9

TQ

nynjpaweather

Rookie

21

294.4

0.889

-43.7%

15

  102.00

43.90

1.359

-78.6%

19

66.60

0.957

-26.7%

15

3.17

1.036

-28.4%

17

18.7%

-0.748

-43.8%

15

nynjpaweather

ilibov

Senior

23

298.3

0.927

-45.6%

16

   90.40

32.30

0.543

-31.4%

12

68.50

1.087

-30.3%

18

2.98

0.750

-20.6%

14

10.4%

-1.175

-68.9%

17

ilibov

weatherT

Rookie

22

303.5

0.978

-48.1%

17

   93.15

35.05

0.737

-42.6%

14

67.65

1.029

-28.7%

16

3.07

0.893

-24.5%

15

16.2%

-0.874

-51.3%

16

weatherT

Newa

Journeyman

21

309.8

1.041

-51.2%

18

   92.45

34.35

0.688

-39.8%

13

68.35

1.076

-30.0%

17

3.25

1.159

-31.8%

18

22.0%

-0.578

-33.9%

13

Newa

defman27

Intern

20

465.8

2.590

-127.3%

19

   97.00

38.90

1.008

-58.3%

16

78.30

1.755

-49.0%

19

3.91

2.134

-58.5%

19

1.2%

-1.643

-96.3%

18

defman27

Forecast Parameters

404

Error

Error Z

% MPRV

Rank

STP

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPRV

Rank

Forecast Parameters

MIN

20

69

-1.352

-127.3%

1

57.25

0.65

-1.683

-78.6%

1

29.9

-1.545

-49.0%

1

1.30

-1.728

-58.5%

1

0.3%

-1.692

-99.2%

      1

MIN

MAX

24

466

2.590

66.4%

19

102.00

43.90

1.359

97.4%

19

78.3

1.755

43.1%

19

3.91

2.134

47.4%

19

63.2%

1.535

90.0%

    19

MAX

AVG

21

205

0.000

0.0%

10

82.52

24.58

0.000

0.0%

10

52.6

0.000

0.0%

10

2.47

0.000

0.0%

10

33.2%

0.000

0.0%

    10

AVG

Median

21

189

-0.154

7.6%

10

85.00

26.90

0.164

-9.5%

10

53.0

0.030

-0.8%

10

2.52

0.079

-2.2%

10

29.9%

-0.171

-10.0%

    10

Median

Mode

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mode

STD

1

101

1.000

49.1%

5.5

14.49

14.22

1.000

57.9%

5.5

14.7

1.000

27.9%

5.5

0.68

1.000

27.4%

5.5

19.5%

1.000

58.6%

   5.5

STD

25%

20

126

-0.784

-36.3%

6

71.96

13.86

-0.754

-44.8%

6

39.2

-0.908

-25.3%

6

1.91

-0.824

-22.5%

6

20.2%

-0.669

-39.2%

      6

 

75%

22

279

0.739

38.5%

15

93.68

35.58

0.774

43.6%

15

65.9

0.908

25.3%

15

3.03

0.822

22.6%

15

48.4%

0.777

45.5%

    15

 

 

 

***************************************************

Snow Storm #5 - Results Summary

 

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error

(number):  category rank

 

1st Place

 

emoran

SUMSQ:

68.80

 

SUMSQ Z:

-1.352

 

STP:

13.11

 (5)

TAE:

29.90

 (1)

AAE:

1.30

 (1)

 

For every inch of snow observed… 1.03” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 57% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

2nd Place

 

anthony

SUMSQ:

75.07

 

SUMSQ Z:

-1.290

 

STP:

9.35

 (4)

TAE:

31.85

 (2)

AAE:

1.59

 (2)

 

For every inch of snow observed …0.97” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 51% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

3rd Place

 

donsutherland1

SUMSQ:

95.99

 

SUMSQ Z:

-1.082

 

STP:

20.85

 (8)

TAE:

34.35

 (3)

AAE:

1.64

 (3)

 

For every inch of snow observed …1.14” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 56% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

Honorable Mention

 

Donald Rosenfeld

SUMSQ:

101.59

 

SUMSQ Z:

-1.026

 

STP:

0.85

 (2)

TAE:

35.55

 (4)

AAE:

1.78

 (4)

 

 For every inch of snow observed …0.72” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 18% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

***************************************************

 

Station forecasts: 404

Average stations per forecaster:  21

Stations with observed snowfall:  20

 

Storm-total precipitation (STP), all stations:

Forecast

Minimum:  57.25” (Donald Rosenfeld)

Consensus Median: .82.5”

Maximum:  131 “ (njnypaweather)

 

Observed: 58.1”

            Max single station: 6.5” @ CON

Shutout:  ACY BWI IAD SBY RIC ORF RDU

 

New Daily Records:
One new daily record.

BGM:  5.5” (5.3”; 1957)

 

Perfect Forecasts

Rank

Forecaster

'Perfect Forecast' Stations

bat avg

1

anthony

BOS

0.050

 

Best Station Forecasts  (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Rank

Forecaster

'Lowest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

1

emoran

HYA PVD BDR ALB MDT DCA

6

0.261

2

shanabe

BGR CON HYA ABE DCA

5

0.250

3

anthony

BOS HYA BDR DCA

4

0.200

3

TrekkerCC

PVD BDL ISP DCA

4

0.200

3

Mitchel Volk

BGR CON ABE DCA

4

0.200

6

donsutherland1

CAR CON EWR DCA

4

0.190

6

Don Rooney

ISP JFK PHL DCA

4

0.190

8

MarkHofmann

CON BTV ORH ALB

4

0.174

9

nynjpaweather

BGR PWM DCA

3

0.143

10

Donald Rosenfeld

PVD DCA

2

0.100

11

Raven

BGM DCA

2

0.095

12

jackzig

ORH DCA

2

0.091

12

weatherT

CAR DCA

2

0.091

14

defman27

DCA

1

0.050

15

herb@maws

DCA

1

0.048

15

TQ

DCA

1

0.048

15

Newa

DCA

1

0.048

18

skiGirl

 

0

0.000

18

ilibov

 

0

0.000

 

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Rank

Forecaster

'Highest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

1

defman27

BTV ABE MDT PHL ACY EWR

6

0.300

2

MarkHofmann

CAR BGR BWI IAD DCA

5

0.217

3

skiGirl

PWM CON ALB RIC

4

0.167

4

TrekkerCC

PWM ORH

2

0.100

4

Mitchel Volk

BOS HYA

2

0.100

6

nynjpaweather

BGM EWR

2

0.095

7

ilibov

BDL JFK

2

0.087

8

TQ

PVD

1

0.048

8

Newa

BDR

1

0.048

10

weatherT

ISP

1

0.045

11

emoran

 

0

0.000

11

anthony

 

0

0.000

11

donsutherland1

 

0

0.000

11

Donald Rosenfeld

 

0

0.000

11

shanabe

 

0

0.000

11

Don Rooney

 

0

0.000

11

herb@maws

 

0

0.000

11

jackzig

 

0

0.000

11

Raven

 

0

0.000

 

***********************************

Congratulations to the Winners!

 

***********************************

Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #5 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

 

Consensus forecast best @ none

MAX forecast best @ BGR…PWM…CON…BTV…ALB

MAX forecast less than observed @ BTV…ALB

MIN forecasts best @ BDR…BDL…ISP…JFK…ABE…MDT…PHL

MIN forecasts more than observed @ BDR…BDL…ISP…JFK…MDT

 

Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

 

*******************************

Verification:

Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.

 

ORH/s 3.1" value is suspect and should be rejected based on vicinity SN:H2O and spotter report, and empirically-derived SN:H2O estimates.

 

Vicinity SN:H2O calculations were ~14:1...which suggests ORH storm-total snowfall was 4.6".

 

A Worcester ham radio spotter reported 4.8".

 

KORH/s SN:H2O...based on 0.33" liquid precipitation...is 9.4". Surface temperatures during the storm ranged between 16° and 19°...which supports a SN:H20...based on empirical evidence...of 20:1 or 6.5".  KORH is notorious for under-reporting snowfall b/c their SN:H2O is always 10:1.

 

KORH/s STP adjusted to 4.6" for this event.

 

HYA/s preliminary 1.6” STP (estimated from METAR P///// and 6///// groups) was changed to 2.5” based on a review of METAR observations (SN:H2O @ 10:1 for 0.25” v. 0.16 “ liquid)

 

Rank

Station

Snow

SN:H2O

    19

CAR

   0.05

 

    13

BGR

   1.90

   63.3

      7

PWM

   4.40

   24.4

      1

CON

   6.50

   14.1

      5

BTV

   5.30

   20.4

      4

BOS

   5.50

   13.8

    10

HYA

   2.50

   10.0

      6

ORH

   4.70

   14.2

      8

PVD

   3.70

   10.0

    12

BDR

   2.00

   10.0

    11

BDL

   2.40

   15.0

      2

ALB

   6.30

   14.3

      3

BGM

   6.20

   19.4

    15

ISP

   1.10

   11.0

    16

JFK

   0.60

   15.0

      9

ABE

   2.60

   14.4

    17

MDT

   0.50

     8.3

    18

PHL

   0.10

     8.3

 

ACY

      -  

 

    14

EWR

   1.70

   21.3

 

BWI

      -  

 

 

IAD

      -  

 

    19

DCA

   0.05

 

 

SBY

      -  

 

 

RIC

      -  

 

 

ORF

      -  

 

 

RDU

      -  

 

 

TOT

58.10

   17.1

 

*******************************

Storm Notes

 

Surface Analysis

 

5H NHEMI

 

5H change

 

IR

 

 

VIS

 

H2Ov

 

Tele-connections

 

Five-day 5H anomaly height correlations

 

Five-day height error