Forecasters: 16

12 veterans
4 rookies

 

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

 

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

 

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Forecaster

Class

4casts

Sum Square

STP

TOTAL Absolute

AVG Absolute

 

 

 

 

 

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

29.40

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Forecaster

shanabe

Senior

13

36.7

-1.201

59.7%

1

   31.00

1.60

-1.140

90.4%

2

13.40

-1.290

46.6%

1

1.03

-1.309

42.3%

1

72.0%

0.333

9.9%

8

shanabe

donsutherland1

Chief

11

40.9

-1.107

55.0%

2

   34.50

5.10

-0.876

69.5%

5

13.40

-1.290

46.6%

2

1.22

-0.985

31.8%

3

70.6%

0.261

7.8%

9

donsutherland1

nynjpaweather

Rookie

16

43.0

-1.061

52.7%

3

   41.40

12.00

-0.356

28.3%

8

17.30

-0.859

31.0%

4

1.08

-1.222

39.5%

2

74.4%

0.454

13.6%

7

nynjpaweather

anthony

Rookie

9

51.5

-0.873

43.3%

4

   28.55

0.85

-1.196

94.9%

1

16.25

-0.975

35.2%

3

1.81

0.032

-1.0%

10

59.0%

-0.336

-10.0%

13

anthony

Raven

Senior

13

60.5

-0.673

33.4%

5

   40.30

10.90

-0.439

34.9%

6

19.70

-0.594

21.4%

5

1.52

-0.470

15.2%

7

63.4%

-0.108

-3.2%

11

Raven

skiGirl

Rookie

18

62.1

-0.638

31.7%

6

   34.44

5.04

-0.880

69.9%

4

23.74

-0.147

5.3%

8

1.32

-0.810

26.2%

4

36.4%

-1.490

-44.4%

15

skiGirl

Newa

Journeyman

11

69.0

-0.486

24.1%

7

   46.60

17.20

0.035

-2.8%

10

22.70

-0.262

9.5%

7

2.06

0.479

-15.5%

12

83.3%

0.912

27.2%

2

Newa

dmcguriman

Senior

17

88.7

-0.048

2.4%

8

   50.65

21.25

0.340

-27.0%

12

25.25

0.019

-0.7%

9

1.49

-0.522

16.9%

6

74.5%

0.459

13.7%

6

dmcguriman

herb@maws

Senior

15

90.6

-0.008

0.4%

9

   49.10

19.70

0.224

-17.7%

11

26.20

0.124

-4.5%

11

1.75

-0.070

2.3%

9

67.8%

0.119

3.5%

10

herb@maws

jackzig

Senior

15

98.9

0.177

-8.8%

10

   33.00

3.60

-0.989

78.5%

3

31.50

0.710

-25.6%

14

2.10

0.542

-17.5%

13

8.0%

-2.942

-87.7%

16

jackzig

TQ

Senior

14

104.3

0.296

-14.7%

11

   44.20

14.80

-0.145

11.5%

9

20.10

-0.550

19.8%

6

1.44

-0.608

19.7%

5

62.8%

-0.141

-4.2%

12

TQ

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

12

108.9

0.398

-19.8%

12

   57.60

28.20

0.864

-68.6%

13

28.70

0.401

-14.5%

12

2.39

1.047

-33.8%

14

79.7%

0.729

21.7%

5

Donald Rosenfeld

Don Rooney

Senior

12

114.2

0.516

-25.6%

13

   58.40

29.00

0.924

-73.3%

14

30.40

0.589

-21.2%

13

2.53

1.292

-41.8%

15

84.3%

0.961

28.7%

1

Don Rooney

weatherT

Rookie

19

124.6

0.745

-37.0%

14

   67.30

37.90

1.594

-126.5%

15

38.00

1.428

-51.5%

15

2.00

0.369

-11.9%

11

81.1%

0.796

23.8%

4

weatherT

bruced39

Journeyman

16

142.7

1.146

-56.9%

15

   40.85

11.45

-0.398

31.6%

7

25.25

0.019

-0.7%

10

1.58

-0.362

11.7%

8

48.8%

-0.856

-25.5%

14

bruced39

weathafella

Journeyman

15

218.1

2.816

-139.9%

16

   78.50

49.10

2.438

-193.5%

16

49.30

2.677

-96.6%

16

3.29

2.596

-83.9%

16

82.1%

0.848

25.3%

3

weathafella

Forecast Parameters

226

Error

Error Z

% MPRV

Rank

STP

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPRV

Rank

Forecast Parameters

MIN

9

37

-1.201

-139.9%

1

28.55

0.85

-1.196

-193.5%

1

13.4

-1.290

-96.6%

1

1.03

-1.309

-83.9%

1

8.0%

-2.942

-87.7%

      1

MIN

MAX

19

218

2.816

59.7%

16

78.50

49.10

2.438

94.9%

16

49.3

2.677

46.6%

16

3.29

2.596

42.3%

16

84.3%

0.961

28.7%

    16

MAX

AVG

14

91

0.000

0.0%

9

46.02

16.73

0.000

0.0%

9

25.1

0.000

0.0%

9

1.79

0.000

0.0%

9

65.5%

0.000

0.0%

      9

AVG

Median

15

90

-0.028

1.4%

9

42.80

13.40

-0.251

19.9%

9

24.5

-0.064

2.3%

9

1.66

-0.216

7.0%

9

71.3%

0.297

8.9%

      9

Median

Mode

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mode

STD

3

45

1.000

49.7%

4.6

13.41

13.28

1.000

79.4%

4.6

9.0

1.000

36.1%

4.6

0.58

1.000

32.3%

4.6

19.5%

1.000

29.8%

   4.6

STD

25%

12

58

-0.723

-21.3%

5

34.49

5.09

-0.877

-37.4%

5

19.1

-0.660

-16.2%

5

1.41

-0.659

-16.0%

5

61.8%

-0.189

-5.6%

      5

 

75%

16

110

0.428

35.9%

12

52.39

22.99

0.471

69.6%

12

29.1

0.448

23.8%

12

2.07

0.495

21.3%

12

80.1%

0.746

22.2%

    12

 

 

 

***************************************************

Snow Storm #4 - Results Summary

 

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error

(number):  category rank

 

1st Place

shanabe

SUMSQ:

36.69

 

SUMSQ Z:

-1.201

 

STP:

1.60

 (2)

TAE:

13.40

 (1)

AAE:

1.03

 (1)

 

For every inch of snow observed… 1.045” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 72.0% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

 

2nd Place

 

donsutherland1

SUMSQ:

40.93

 

SUMSQ Z:

-1.107

 

STP:

5.10

 (5)

TAE:

13.40

 (2)

AAE:

1.22

 (3)

 

For every inch of snow observed …1.083” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 70.3% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

 

3rd Place

 

nynjpaweather

SUMSQ:

43.00

 

SUMSQ Z:

-1.061

 

STP:

12.00

 (8)

TAE:

17.30

 (4)

AAE:

1.08

 (2)

 

For every inch of snow observed …1.19” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 72.9% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

Honorable Mention

 

anthony

SUMSQ:

51.52

 

SUMSQ Z:

-0.873

 

STP:

0.85

 (1)

TAE:

16.25

 (3)

AAE:

1.81

 (10)

 

 For every inch of snow observed …0.933” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 58.9% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

 

***************************************************

 

Station forecasts: 226

Average stations per forecaster:  14

Stations with observed snowfall:  16

 

Storm-total precipitation (STP), all stations:

Forecast

Minimum:  28.55” (Anthony)

Consensus Median: 42.8”

Maximum:  78.5 “ (weaherfella)

 

Observed: 29.4””

            Max single station: 6.9” @ CAR

Shutout:  HYA ISP JFK PHL ACY SBY RIC ORF RDU

 

New Daily Records:
none

 

Perfect Forecasts

Rank

Forecaster

'Perfect Forecast' Stations

bat avg

1

donsutherland1

BDL

0.091

2

shanabe

BDR

0.077

 

Best Station Forecasts  (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Rank

Forecaster

'Lowest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

1

shanabe

PWM CON BDR ALB EWR DCA

6

0.462

2

donsutherland1

CAR CON BDL EWR DCA

5

0.455

3

anthony

CAR PWM EWR DCA

4

0.444

4

bruced39

BGR CON PVD BDR ABE EWR DCA

7

0.438

5

TQ

PVD ABE MDT EWR DCA

5

0.357

6

Raven

CON ALB EWR DCA

4

0.308

7

skiGirl

BGR ABE MDT EWR DCA

5

0.278

8

Newa

PVD EWR DCA

3

0.273

9

nynjpaweather

CAR BGM EWR DCA

4

0.250

9

Donald Rosenfeld

ORH EWR DCA

3

0.250

9

Don Rooney

BOS EWR DCA

3

0.250

12

jackzig

CON BTV DCA

3

0.200

13

weathafella

EWR DCA

2

0.133

14

dmcguriman

ABE DCA

2

0.118

15

herb@maws

DCA

1

0.067

16

weatherT

DCA

1

0.053

 

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Rank

Forecaster

'Highest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

1

weathafella

CAR BGR PWM CON BOS BDL BGM ABE MDT DCA

10

0.667

2

weatherT

HYA PVD ALB JFK PHL DCA

6

0.316

3

bruced39

BTV ORH DCA

3

0.188

4

skiGirl

BDR ISP DCA

3

0.167

4

Don Rooney

BGR DCA

2

0.167

6

Raven

ORH DCA

2

0.154

7

jackzig

EWR DCA

2

0.133

8

anthony

DCA

1

0.111

9

donsutherland1

DCA

1

0.091

9

Newa

DCA

1

0.091

11

Donald Rosenfeld

DCA

1

0.083

12

shanabe

DCA

1

0.077

13

TQ

DCA

1

0.071

14

herb@maws

DCA

1

0.067

15

nynjpaweather

DCA

1

0.063

16

dmcguriman

DCA

1

0.059

 

***********************************

Congratulations to the Winners!

 

***********************************

Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #4 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

 

 

Consensus forecast best @ BOS

MAX forecast best @ ORH

MAX forecast less than observed:  none

MIN forecasts best @ BTV…PVD…BDR…BDL…ALB

MIN forecasts more than observed @ BTV

 

Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

 

*******************************

Verification:

Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins

Rank

Station

Snow

SN:H2O

      1

CAR

   6.90

   15.0

      3

BGR

   4.30

   11.6

      5

PWM

   2.90

 

      4

CON

   3.40

 

      6

BTV

   2.70

   10.8

      9

BOS

   1.20

 

 

HYA

      -  

 

      2

ORH

   4.40

 

    11

PVD

   0.05

 

    11

BDR

   0.05

 

    10

BDL

   0.40

 

      8

ALB

   1.30

 

      7

BGM

   1.60

 

 

ISP

      -  

 

 

JFK

      -  

 

    11

ABE

   0.05

 

    11

MDT

   0.05

 

 

PHL

      -  

 

 

ACY

      -  

 

    11

EWR

   0.05

 

 

BWI

      -  

 

 

IAD

      -  

 

    11

DCA

   0.05

 

 

SBY

      -  

 

 

RIC

      -  

 

 

ORF

      -  

 

 

RDU

      -  

 

 

TOT

29.40

   12.5

 

 

*******************************

Storm Notes

 

Surface Analysis

 

5H NHEMI

 

5H change

 

IR

 

VIS

 

H2Ov

 

Tele-connections

 

Five-day 5H anomaly height correlations

 

Five-day height error