Forecasters: 11
10 veterans
1 rookie
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
97.70 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
emoran |
Senior |
21 |
79.2 |
-1.013 |
52.8% |
1 |
96.15 |
1.55 |
-1.097 |
86.5% |
1 |
25.45 |
-1.213 |
37.2% |
1 |
1.21 |
-1.402 |
39.7% |
1 |
90.2% |
0.908 |
13.9% |
1 |
emoran |
|
donsutherland1 |
Chief |
19 |
90.8 |
-0.880 |
45.8% |
2 |
90.90 |
6.80 |
-0.518 |
40.8% |
5 |
25.90 |
-1.177 |
36.1% |
2 |
1.36 |
-1.137 |
32.2% |
2 |
87.9% |
0.719 |
11.0% |
2 |
donsutherland1 |
|
Raven |
Senior |
23 |
101.5 |
-0.758 |
39.5% |
3 |
117.85 |
20.15 |
0.957 |
-75.4% |
10 |
36.75 |
-0.304 |
9.3% |
5 |
1.60 |
-0.724 |
20.5% |
3 |
87.4% |
0.679 |
10.4% |
3 |
Raven |
|
NYNJPAWeather |
Rookie |
19 |
119.5 |
-0.551 |
28.7% |
4 |
95.00 |
2.70 |
-0.970 |
76.5% |
2 |
32.00 |
-0.686 |
21.0% |
3 |
1.68 |
-0.572 |
16.2% |
4 |
83.0% |
0.312 |
4.8% |
5 |
NYNJPAWeather |
|
Newa |
Journeyman |
19 |
122.8 |
-0.513 |
26.7% |
5 |
107.50 |
9.80 |
-0.186 |
14.7% |
7 |
35.90 |
-0.372 |
11.4% |
4 |
1.89 |
-0.212 |
6.0% |
5 |
83.0% |
0.309 |
4.7% |
6 |
Newa |
|
TQ |
Senior |
16 |
156.2 |
-0.131 |
6.8% |
7 |
83.10 |
14.60 |
0.344 |
-27.1% |
8 |
38.10 |
-0.195 |
6.0% |
6 |
2.38 |
0.652 |
-18.5% |
10 |
79.8% |
0.050 |
0.8% |
8 |
TQ |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
23 |
155.2 |
-0.142 |
7.4% |
6 |
131.00 |
33.30 |
2.409 |
-189.9% |
11 |
47.90 |
0.594 |
-18.2% |
9 |
2.08 |
0.128 |
-3.6% |
6 |
83.5% |
0.357 |
5.5% |
4 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
apisces1 |
Journeyman |
19 |
181.3 |
0.157 |
-8.2% |
8 |
90.00 |
7.70 |
-0.418 |
33.0% |
6 |
39.60 |
-0.074 |
2.3% |
7 |
2.08 |
0.130 |
-3.7% |
7 |
78.0% |
-0.099 |
-1.5% |
9 |
apisces1 |
|
Mitchel Volk |
Senior |
19 |
214.3 |
0.536 |
-27.9% |
9 |
79.00 |
18.70 |
0.797 |
-62.8% |
9 |
41.60 |
0.087 |
-2.7% |
8 |
2.19 |
0.315 |
-8.9% |
8 |
74.7% |
-0.374 |
-5.7% |
10 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
ilibov |
Senior |
23 |
218.3 |
0.581 |
-30.3% |
10 |
90.95 |
6.75 |
-0.523 |
41.2% |
4 |
50.65 |
0.815 |
-25.0% |
10 |
2.20 |
0.338 |
-9.6% |
9 |
80.3% |
0.091 |
1.4% |
7 |
ilibov |
|
jackzig |
Senior |
21 |
404.5 |
2.715 |
-141.3% |
11 |
102.00 |
4.30 |
-0.794 |
62.6% |
3 |
71.90 |
2.525 |
-77.4% |
11 |
3.42 |
2.484 |
-70.3% |
11 |
43.5% |
-2.952 |
-45.1% |
11 |
jackzig |
|
Forecast
Parameters |
222 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
16 |
79 |
-1.013 |
-141.3% |
1 |
79.00 |
1.55 |
-1.097 |
-189.9% |
1 |
25.5 |
-1.213 |
-77.4% |
1 |
1.21 |
-1.402 |
-70.3% |
1 |
43.5% |
-2.952 |
-45.1% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
23 |
404 |
2.715 |
52.8% |
11 |
131.00 |
33.30 |
2.409 |
86.5% |
11 |
71.9 |
2.525 |
37.2% |
11 |
3.42 |
2.484 |
39.7% |
11 |
90.2% |
0.908 |
13.9% |
11 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
20 |
168 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
98.50 |
11.49 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
40.5 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
2.01 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
79.2% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
19 |
155 |
-0.142 |
7.4% |
6 |
95.00 |
7.70 |
-0.418 |
33.0% |
6 |
38.1 |
-0.195 |
6.0% |
6 |
2.08 |
0.128 |
-3.6% |
6 |
83.0% |
0.309 |
4.7% |
6 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
2 |
87 |
1.000 |
52.1% |
3.2 |
14.60 |
9.05 |
1.000 |
78.8% |
3.2 |
12.4 |
1.000 |
30.7% |
3.2 |
0.57 |
1.000 |
28.3% |
3.2 |
12.1% |
1.000 |
15.3% |
3.2 |
STD |
|
|
25% |
19 |
110 |
-0.655 |
-18.0% |
4 |
90.45 |
5.53 |
-0.658 |
-45.0% |
4 |
34.0 |
-0.529 |
-10.4% |
4 |
1.64 |
-0.648 |
-9.2% |
4 |
78.9% |
-0.024 |
-0.4% |
4 |
|
|
|
75% |
22 |
198 |
0.346 |
34.1% |
9 |
104.75 |
16.65 |
0.570 |
51.9% |
9 |
44.8 |
0.340 |
16.2% |
9 |
2.20 |
0.327 |
18.4% |
9 |
85.5% |
0.518 |
7.9% |
9 |
|
|
***************************************************
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank
|
1st
Place
For every inch of snow observed… 0.847” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 88.0% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
2nd
Place
For every inch of snow observed …0.838” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 87.0% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
3rd Place
For every inch of snow observed …0.996” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 83.6% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
Honorable Mention
For every inch of snow observed …0.842”
was forecast. Forecast accounted for
81.2% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
Average stations per forecaster: 20
Stations with observed snowfall: 20
Minimum: 79” (Mitchel Volk)
Consensus Median: 95.0””
Maximum: 131 “ (Donald Rosenfeld)
Observed: 97.7””
Max single station: 18.5” @ CAR
Shutout: ACY IAD DCA SBY RIC ORF RDU
New Daily Records:
Seven new daily records were set on Sunday.
PWM - 14.5" (12.4"; '33)
CON - 10" (7.9"; '14)
BGR - 9.7" (7"; '95)
BTV - 9.1" (7.8"; '10)
ORH - 8" (6"; '54)
ALB - 6.6" (5.7"; 1887)
BDL - 5" (2.6"; '75)
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
emoran |
BDL PHL BWI |
0.143 |
|
2 |
Mitchel Volk |
CON |
0.053 |
|
3 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0.000 |
|
3 |
Raven |
|
0.000 |
|
3 |
NYNJPAWeather |
|
0.000 |
|
3 |
Newa |
|
0.000 |
|
3 |
TQ |
|
0.000 |
|
3 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0.000 |
|
3 |
apisces1 |
|
0.000 |
|
3 |
ilibov |
|
0.000 |
|
3 |
jackzig |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
emoran |
CAR BTV BDL MDT PHL BWI |
6 |
0.286 |
|
2 |
donsutherland1 |
BDR ALB JFK ABE |
4 |
0.211 |
|
3 |
TQ |
HYA ISP |
2 |
0.043 |
|
4 |
NYNJPAWeather |
BGR BOS |
2 |
0.105 |
|
4 |
Newa |
ABE EWR |
2 |
0.105 |
|
6 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
ORH BGM |
2 |
0.125 |
|
7 |
Mitchel Volk |
CON |
1 |
0.087 |
|
8 |
jackzig |
PVD |
1 |
0.000 |
|
9 |
Raven |
PWM |
1 |
0.053 |
|
10 |
apisces1 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
10 |
ilibov |
|
0 |
0.048 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
jackzig |
CAR BGR HYA BDR BGM ISP
JFK ABE MDT ACY EWR |
11 |
0.524 |
|
2 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
BOS PVD PHL BWI IAD DCA |
6 |
0.261 |
|
3 |
TQ |
PWM BDL |
2 |
0.125 |
|
4 |
Raven |
CON ALB |
2 |
0.087 |
|
5 |
NYNJPAWeather |
BDL |
1 |
0.053 |
|
5 |
Newa |
BTV |
1 |
0.053 |
|
5 |
Mitchel Volk |
ORH |
1 |
0.053 |
|
8 |
ilibov |
ALB |
1 |
0.043 |
|
9 |
emoran |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
9 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
9 |
apisces1 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
***********************************
***********************************
Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #3 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
Consensus forecast best @ BGR…CON…BTV…ALB…
MAX forecast best @ CAR…PWM
MAX forecast less than observed @ CAR
MIN forecasts best @ HYA…BGM…ISP…JFK…ABE…MDT…PHL…EWR
MIN forecasts more than observed @ ABE
Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
|
1 |
CAR |
18.50 |
13.6 |
|
3 |
BGR |
11.20 |
12.7 |
|
2 |
PWM |
14.50 |
24.6 |
|
4 |
CON |
10.00 |
17.9 |
|
5 |
BTV |
9.10 |
15.7 |
|
10 |
BOS |
3.80 |
7.5 |
|
17 |
HYA |
0.05 |
|
|
6 |
ORH |
8.00 |
17.4 |
|
9 |
PVD |
4.50 |
7.9 |
|
12 |
BDR |
1.00 |
|
|
8 |
BDL |
5.00 |
15.2 |
|
7 |
ALB |
6.60 |
19.4 |
|
11 |
BGM |
3.10 |
25.8 |
|
16 |
ISP |
0.20 |
|
|
15 |
JFK |
0.50 |
|
|
14 |
ABE |
0.60 |
|
|
17 |
MDT |
0.05 |
|
|
17 |
PHL |
0.05 |
|
|
|
ACY |
-
|
|
|
13 |
EWR |
0.90 |
|
|
17 |
BWI |
0.05 |
|
|
|
IAD |
-
|
|
|
|
DCA |
-
|
|
|
|
SBY |
-
|
|
|
|
RIC |
-
|
|
|
|
ORF |
-
|
|
|
|
RDU |
-
|
|
|
|
TOT |
97.70 |
16.1 |
SN:H2O @ PWM and CON estimates derived from METAR 6///// and P///// groups.
*******************************
Five-day 5H anomaly height correlations