Forecasters: 18

8 veterans
4 rookies…including two first-timers.

 

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

 

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

 

Final Standings - all Forecasters

 

Forecaster

Class

4casts

Sum Square

STP

TOTAL Absolute

AVG Absolute

 

 

 

 

 

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

119.85

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Forecaster

bruced39

Journeyman

19

112.6

-1.318

52.7%

1

  124.00

4.15

-0.842

75.7%

3

35.15

-1.182

30.3%

3

1.85

-1.217

32.5%

3

81.3%

1.418

26.2%

1

bruced39

donsutherland1

Chief

19

123.9

-1.199

48.0%

2

  112.00

7.85

-0.602

54.1%

6

31.55

-1.461

37.4%

1

1.66

-1.475

39.4%

1

79.4%

1.261

23.3%

2

donsutherland1

emoran

Senior

19

125.9

-1.179

47.1%

3

  114.55

5.30

-0.768

69.0%

4

32.30

-1.403

36.0%

2

1.70

-1.421

38.0%

2

78.7%

1.197

22.1%

3

emoran

Mitchel Volk

Senior

19

154.2

-0.882

35.3%

4

  122.00

2.15

-0.972

87.4%

1

39.55

-0.842

21.6%

6

2.08

-0.901

24.1%

4

73.7%

0.780

14.4%

5

Mitchel Volk

shanabe

Senior

17

164.2

-0.776

31.0%

5

   93.55

26.30

0.598

-53.8%

15

38.90

-0.892

22.9%

4

2.29

-0.619

16.6%

5

76.6%

1.022

18.9%

4

shanabe

dmcguriman

Senior

19

166.4

-0.753

30.1%

6

  130.40

10.55

-0.426

38.3%

9

43.75

-0.517

13.3%

7

2.30

-0.600

16.0%

7

73.5%

0.766

14.1%

6

dmcguriman

herb@maws

Senior

17

170.4

-0.711

28.4%

7

  111.50

8.35

-0.569

51.2%

7

39.05

-0.881

22.6%

5

2.30

-0.607

16.2%

6

72.0%

0.640

11.8%

8

herb@maws

apisces1

Journeyman

19

190.5

-0.500

20.0%

8

   95.00

24.85

0.504

-45.3%

13

51.35

0.071

-1.8%

10

2.70

-0.054

1.4%

9

72.5%

0.680

12.6%

7

apisces1

anthony

Rookie

16

224.8

-0.140

5.6%

9

  106.55

13.30

-0.247

22.3%

11

46.50

-0.304

7.8%

8

2.91

0.223

-6.0%

12

67.1%

0.221

4.1%

9

anthony

TQ

Senior

17

227.9

-0.107

4.3%

10

   99.30

20.55

0.224

-20.1%

12

46.75

-0.285

7.3%

9

2.75

0.010

-0.3%

10

63.8%

-0.057

-1.1%

10

TQ

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

20

230.0

-0.085

3.4%

11

  122.25

2.40

-0.956

86.0%

2

52.40

0.152

-3.9%

11

2.62

-0.167

4.5%

8

60.6%

-0.326

-6.0%

11

Donald Rosenfeld

wxduff

Intern

19

294.9

0.596

-23.8%

12

  125.50

5.65

-0.745

67.0%

5

62.25

0.914

-23.4%

14

3.28

0.728

-19.5%

15

51.3%

-1.103

-20.4%

15

wxduff

ilibov

Senior

20

300.3

0.653

-26.1%

13

   83.55

36.30

1.248

-112.2%

17

56.80

0.493

-12.6%

13

2.84

0.133

-3.6%

11

58.1%

-0.535

-9.9%

12

ilibov

jackzig

Senior

20

306.5

0.718

-28.7%

14

   94.00

25.85

0.569

-51.1%

14

66.35

1.231

-31.6%

16

3.32

0.784

-21.0%

16

54.3%

-0.849

-15.7%

14

jackzig

Don Rooney

Senior

17

329.4

0.959

-38.3%

15

  149.10

29.25

0.790

-71.0%

16

55.45

0.388

-9.9%

12

3.26

0.708

-18.9%

14

58.0%

-0.538

-9.9%

13

Don Rooney

skiGirl

Rookie

23

339.6

1.066

-42.6%

16

  110.55

9.30

-0.508

45.6%

8

71.40

1.622

-41.6%

17

3.10

0.494

-13.2%

13

42.2%

-1.866

-34.4%

18

skiGirl

NYNJPAWeather

Rookie

17

358.0

1.259

-50.4%

17

  130.50

10.65

-0.420

37.7%

10

65.25

1.146

-29.4%

15

3.84

1.494

-40.0%

17

49.6%

-1.243

-22.9%

16

NYNJPAWeather

weatherT

Rookie

16

466.6

2.399

-95.9%

18

   54.70

65.15

3.124

-280.9%

18

73.05

1.750

-44.8%

18

4.57

2.486

-66.5%

18

47.0%

-1.467

-27.1%

17

weatherT

Forecast Parameters

333

Error

Error Z

% MPRV

Rank

STP

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPRV

Rank

Forecast Parameters

MIN

16

113

-1.318

-95.9%

1

54.70

2.15

-0.972

-280.9%

1

31.6

-1.461

-44.8%

1

1.66

-1.475

-66.5%

1

42.2%

-1.866

-34.4%

      1

MIN

MAX

23

467

2.399

52.7%

18

149.10

65.15

3.124

87.4%

18

73.1

1.750

37.4%

18

4.57

2.486

39.4%

18

81.3%

1.418

26.2%

    18

MAX

AVG

19

238

0.000

0.0%

10

109.94

17.11

0.000

0.0%

10

50.4

0.000

0.0%

10

2.74

0.000

0.0%

10

64.4%

0.000

0.0%

    10

AVG

Median

19

226

-0.124

5.0%

10

111.75

10.60

-0.423

38.0%

10

49.1

-0.107

2.7%

10

2.73

-0.022

0.6%

10

65.4%

0.082

1.5%

    10

Median

Mode

19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mode

STD

2

95

1.000

40.0%

5.2

20.76

15.38

1.000

89.9%

5.2

12.9

1.000

25.6%

5.2

0.73

1.000

26.7%

5.2

11.9%

1.000

18.5%

   5.2

STD

25%

17

165

-0.770

-28.1%

5

96.08

6.20

-0.709

-49.7%

5

39.2

-0.871

-20.7%

5

2.29

-0.616

-17.5%

5

55.3%

-0.771

-14.2%

      5

 

75%

19

305

0.702

30.8%

14

123.56

25.60

0.552

63.8%

14

60.9

0.809

22.3%

14

3.22

0.655

16.5%

14

73.7%

0.776

14.3%

    14

 

 

***************************************************

Snow Storm #1 - Results Summary

 

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error

(number):  category rank

 

1st Place

 

bruced39

SUMSQ:

112.63

 

SUMSQ Z:

-1.318

 

STP:

4.15

 (3)

TAE:

35.15

 (3)

AAE:

1.85

 (3)

 

For every inch of snow observed… 0.953” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 80.1% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

 

2nd Place

 

donsutherland1

SUMSQ:

123.92

 

SUMSQ Z:

-1.199

 

STP:

7.85

 (6)

TAE:

31.55

 (1)

AAE:

1.66

 (1)

 

For every inch of snow observed …0.887” was observed.  Forecast accounted for 79.0% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

 

3rd Place

 

emoran

SUMSQ:

125.89

 

SUMSQ Z:

-1.179

 

STP:

5.30

 (4)

TAE:

32.30

 (2)

AAE:

1.70

 (2)

 

 

For every inch of snow observed …0.882” was observed.  Forecast accounted for 77.6% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

Honorable Mention

 

Mitchel Volk

SUMSQ:

154.18

 

SUMSQ Z:

-0.882

 

STP:

2.15

 (1)

TAE:

39.55

 (6)

AAE:

2.08

 (4)

 

 For every inch of snow observed …0.888” was observed.  Forecast accounted for 70.1% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

 

***************************************************

 

Station forecasts: 333

Average stations per forecaster: 19

Stations with observed snowfall:  18

 

Storm-total precipitation (STP), all stations:

Forecast

Minimum:  54.7” (weatherT)

Consensus Median: 111.75”

Maximum:  149.1 “ (Don Rooney)

 

Observed: 26.7””

            Max single station: 11.4” @ ORH

Shutout:  PHL  ACY  EWR   BWI     IAD      DCA   SBY    RIC      ORF    RDU

 

New Daily Records:
ORH - 11.6" (10"; '45)

BTV - 8.6" (5.2"; '96)

ALB - 7.8" (4.2"; '86)

PWM - 6.5" (4"; '61,'45,1885)

CON - 6.5" (5"; '85)

 

Perfect Forecasts

Rank

Forecaster

'Perfect Forecast' Stations

bat avg

1

weatherT

HYA

0.063

2

anthony

 

0.000

2

apisces1

 

0.000

2

bruced39

 

0.000

2

dmcguriman

 

0.000

2

Don Rooney

 

0.000

2

Donald Rosenfeld

 

0.000

2

donsutherland1

 

0.000

2

emoran

 

0.000

2

herb@maws

 

0.000

2

ilibov

 

0.000

2

jackzig

 

0.000

2

Mitchel Volk

 

0.000

2

NYNJPAWeather

 

0.000

2

shanabe

 

0.000

2

skiGirl

 

0.000

2

TQ

 

0.000

2

wxduff

 

0.000

 

Best Station Forecasts  (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Rank

Forecaster

'Lowest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

1

bruced39

PWM BTV PVD BDR

4

0.211

1

emoran

CAR BGR PVD ALB

4

0.211

3

shanabe

HYA BDL MDT

3

0.176

3

TQ

BGR BDR ISP

3

0.176

5

donsutherland1

CON ALB ABE

3

0.158

6

anthony

CON ABE

2

0.125

7

Don Rooney

BOS ORH

2

0.118

7

herb@maws

CON PVD

2

0.118

9

Mitchel Volk

HYA PVD

2

0.105

10

skiGirl

BGR JFK

2

0.087

11

weatherT

HYA

1

0.063

12

NYNJPAWeather

ISP

1

0.059

13

apisces1

BTV

1

0.053

13

dmcguriman

EWR

1

0.053

15

Donald Rosenfeld

ISP

1

0.050

15

ilibov

CAR

1

0.050

15

jackzig

BGM

1

0.050

18

wxduff

 

0

0.000

 

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Rank

Forecaster

'Highest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

1

weatherT

PWM CON BTV BOS ALB ISP EWR

7

0.438

2

skiGirl

PHL ACY BWI IAD DCA SBY

6

0.261

3

Don Rooney

BGR ABE MDT

3

0.176

4

jackzig

CAR ORH BDL

3

0.150

5

anthony

HYA BGM

2

0.125

6

NYNJPAWeather

HYA BDR

2

0.118

7

TQ

ORH

1

0.059

8

apisces1

PVD

1

0.053

8

wxduff

JFK

1

0.053

10

bruced39

 

0

0.000

10

donsutherland1

 

0

0.000

10

emoran

 

0

0.000

10

Mitchel Volk

 

0

0.000

10

shanabe

 

0

0.000

10

dmcguriman

 

0

0.000

10

herb@maws

 

0

0.000

10

Donald Rosenfeld

 

0

0.000

10

ilibov

 

0

0.000

 

***********************************

Congratulations to the Winners!

 

***********************************

Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #2 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

 

Consensus forecast best @ BDR…BDL…EWR

MAX forecast best @ PWM…BOS…ORH…ALB

MAX forecast less than observed @ PWM…BTV…BOS…ORH (Note:  forecast for BTV was ~6” less than observed.)

MIN forecasts best @ BGR…BGM…MDT…PHL

MIN forecasts more than observed @ BGM

 

Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

 

*******************************

Verification:

Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins

Rank

Station

Snow

SN:H2O

    16

CAR

   0.10

 

    16

BGR

   0.10

 

      9

PWM

   6.50

   18.6

      7

CON

   7.30

   14.0

      3

BTV

 11.70

   20.9

      2

BOS

 12.50

   11.8

    12

HYA

   6.00

     6.7

      1

ORH

 14.10

   18.6

      5

PVD

   9.80

   11.0

      7

BDR

   7.30

   20.3

      6

BDL

   9.40

   22.4

      4

ALB

 11.30

   25.7

    10

BGM

   6.40

   14.5

    11

ISP

   6.30

     9.4

    14

JFK

   2.80

   11.2

    14

ABE

   2.80

     7.6

    18

MDT

   0.05

 

 

PHL

      -  

 

 

ACY

      -  

 

    13

EWR

   5.40

   14.6

 

BWI

      -  

 

 

IAD

      -  

 

 

DCA

      -  

 

 

SBY

      -  

 

 

RIC

      -  

 

 

ORF

      -  

 

 

RDU

      -  

 

 

TOT

119.85

   15.1

 

SN:H20 ratios for some stations could not be computed because of RA / FZRA contamination.

 

*******************************

Storm Notes

 

Surface Analysis

 

5H NHEMI

 

5H change

 

 

IR

 

VIS

 

Tele-connections

 

Five-day 5H anomaly height correlations

 

Five-day height error