Forecasters: 11

8 veterans
3 rookies

1 entry removed from final Z-score calculations (forecast verified > 3 standard deviations above mean error)

 

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

 

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

 

Final Standings - all Forecasters

 

Forecaster

Class

4casts

Sum Square

STP

TOTAL Absolute

AVG Absolute

 

 

 

 

 

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

26.70

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Forecaster

wxduff

Intern

16

10.3

-1.160

67.7%

1

        28.75

2.05

-1.624

83.6%

2

9.05

-1.983

48.3%

1

0.57

-1.185

50.3%

1

86.3%

0.874

15.4%

2

wxduff

donsutherland1

Chief

19

14.4

-0.939

54.8%

2

        38.15

11.45

-0.159

8.2%

4

14.05

-0.810

19.7%

2

0.74

-0.825

35.0%

2

86.9%

0.923

16.3%

1

donsutherland1

dmcguriman

Senior

17

19.4

-0.675

39.4%

3

        39.60

12.90

0.066

-3.4%

6

15.90

-0.376

9.1%

4

0.94

-0.420

17.8%

4

83.7%

0.674

11.9%

4

dmcguriman

TQ

Senior

18

21.5

-0.561

32.8%

4

        40.45

13.75

0.199

-10.2%

7

15.35

-0.505

12.3%

3

0.85

-0.591

25.1%

3

85.6%

0.819

14.5%

3

TQ

ilibov

Senior

20

25.1

-0.369

21.6%

5

        43.01

16.31

0.598

-30.8%

9

19.11

0.378

-9.2%

8

0.96

-0.378

16.1%

6

81.4%

0.502

8.9%

5

ilibov

herb@maws

Senior

18

27.5

-0.239

14.0%

6

        38.60

11.90

-0.089

4.6%

5

16.90

-0.141

3.4%

6

0.94

-0.413

17.5%

5

73.7%

-0.079

-1.4%

7

herb@maws

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

17

28.8

-0.169

9.8%

7

        36.50

9.80

-0.417

21.4%

3

17.70

0.047

-1.1%

7

1.04

-0.201

8.5%

7

67.2%

-0.569

-10.1%

10

Donald Rosenfeld

shanabe

Senior

16

32.0

-0.001

0.1%

8

        42.85

16.15

0.573

-29.5%

8

19.25

0.410

-10.0%

9

1.20

0.134

-5.7%

9

74.9%

0.012

0.2%

6

shanabe

weatherT

Rookie

7

42.7

0.573

-33.5%

9

        27.00

0.30

-1.897

97.6%

1

16.50

-0.235

5.7%

5

2.36

2.521

-107.1%

11

72.2%

-0.191

-3.4%

8

weatherT

Don Rooney

Senior

19

50.7

1.002

-58.5%

10

        49.00

22.30

1.531

-78.8%

11

22.30

1.126

-27.4%

10

1.17

0.073

-3.1%

8

72.0%

-0.210

-3.7%

9

Don Rooney

NYNJPAWeather

Rookie

15

79.4

2.539

-148.2%

11

        47.00

20.30

1.219

-62.7%

10

26.40

2.088

-50.8%

11

1.76

1.286

-54.6%

10

38.3%

-2.756

-48.7%

12

NYNJPAWeather

answered7

Rookie

17

192.9

3.077

-325.0%

12

        75.00

48.30

2.818

-212.4%

12

48.40

2.993

-141.1%

12

2.85

2.369

-122.3%

12

55.8%

-1.271

-23.8%

11

answered7

Forecast Parameters

199

Error

Error Z

% MPRV

Rank

STP

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPRV

Rank

Forecast Parameters

MIN

7

10

-1.160

-325.0%

1

27.00

0.30

-1.897

-212.4%

1

9.1

-1.983

-141.1%

1

0.57

-1.185

-122.3%

1

38.3%

-2.756

-48.7%

             1

MIN

MAX

20

193

3.077

67.7%

11

75.00

48.30

2.818

97.6%

12

48.4

2.993

48.3%

12

2.85

2.521

50.3%

12

86.9%

0.923

16.3%

           12

MAX

AVG

17

32

0.000

0.0%

7

42.16

12.47

0.000

-17.7%

7

17.5

0.249

-11.8%

7

1.14

0.197

-10.2%

7

74.7%

-0.106

-2.0%

             7

AVG

Median

17

28

-0.204

11.9%

7

40.03

13.33

0.133

-6.8%

7

17.3

-0.047

1.1%

7

1.00

-0.290

12.3%

7

74.3%

-0.033

-0.6%

             7

Median

Mode

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mode

STD

3

19

1.000

58.4%

3.5

11.65

6.42

1.000

76.6%

3.5

4.3

1.265

45.4%

3.5

0.48

1.160

52.9%

3.5

13.2%

1.020

18.1%

          3.5

STD

25%

16

21

-0.590

-39.7%

4

37.74

11.04

-0.224

-38.8%

4

15.8

-0.408

-14.4%

4

0.91

-0.463

-17.9%

4

70.8%

-0.299

-5.3%

             4

 

75%

18

45

0.680

34.4%

9

44.01

17.31

0.753

11.5%

9

20.0

0.589

9.9%

9

1.34

0.422

19.7%

9

84.1%

0.711

12.6%

             9

 

 

***************************************************

Snow Storm #1 - Results Summary

 

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error

(number):  category rank

 

1st Place

 

wxduff

SUMSQ:

10.32

 

SUMSQ Z:

-1.160

 

STP:

2.05

 (2)

TAE:

9.05

 (1)

AAE:

0.57

 (1)

 

For every inch of snow observed… 0.893” was forecast.  Forecast accounted for 84.2% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

 

2nd Place

 

donsutherland1

SUMSQ:

14.45

 

SUMSQ Z:

-0.939

 

STP:

11.45

 (4)

TAE:

14.05

 (2)

AAE:

0.74

 (2)

 

For every inch of snow observed …1.027” was observed.  Forecast accounted for 78.1% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

 

3rd Place

 

dmcguriman

SUMSQ:

19.38

 

SUMSQ Z:

-0.675

 

STP:

12.90

 (6)

TAE:

15.90

 (4)

AAE:

0.94

 (4)

 

For every inch of snow observed …1.095” was observed.  Forecast accounted for 76.9% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

Honorable Mention

 

TQ

SUMSQ:

21.50

 

SUMSQ Z:

-0.561

 

STP:

13.75

(7)

TAE:

15.35

(3)

AAE:

0.85

(3)

 

 For every inch of snow observed …1.188” was observed.  Forecast accounted for 81.6% of the observed snowfall/s variability.

 

 

***************************************************

 

Station forecasts: 199

Average stations per forecaster: 17

Stations with observed snowfall:  14

 

Storm-total precipitation (STP), all stations:

Forecast

Minimum:  27” (weatherT)

Consensus Median: 40.03”

Maximum:  74 “ (answered7)

 

Observed: 26.7””

            Max single station: 5.7” @ BTV

Shutout:  ISP  JFK     ABE    MDT    PHL    ACY    EWR   BWI     IAD      DCA   SBY    RIC      ORF            RDU

 

New Daily Records:
None

 

Perfect Forecasts

Rank

Forecaster

'Perfect Forecast' Stations

bat avg

1

wxduff

CON HYA EWR

0.188

2

NYNJPAWeather

BOS

0.067

3

shanabe

HYA

0.063

4

TQ

EWR

0.056

5

Don Rooney

BDR

0.053

6

donsutherland1

 

0.000

6

dmcguriman

 

0.000

6

ilibov

 

0.000

6

herb@maws

 

0.000

6

Donald Rosenfeld

 

0.000

6

weatherT

 

0.000

6

answered7

 

0.000

 

Best Station Forecasts  (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Rank

Forecaster

'Lowest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

1

wxduff

BGR PWM CON HYA EWR

5

0.313

2

weatherT

BDL ALB

2

0.286

3

NYNJPAWeather

CAR PWM BOS ORH

4

0.267

4

Donald Rosenfeld

BGR PVD ALB BGM

4

0.235

5

shanabe

BTV HYA

2

0.125

6

donsutherland1

BTV BDL

2

0.105

7

TQ

EWR

1

0.056

8

Don Rooney

BDR

1

0.053

9

dmcguriman

 

0

0.000

9

ilibov

 

0

0.000

9

herb@maws

 

0

0.000

9

answered7

 

0

0.000

 

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Rank

Forecaster

'Highest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

1

answered7

BGR ORH PVD BDR BDL ALB BGM JFK ABE

9

0.529

2

weatherT

CAR CON

2

0.286

3

Donald Rosenfeld

PWM BTV BOS EWR

4

0.235

4

donsutherland1

ISP ACY

2

0.105

4

Don Rooney

MDT PHL

2

0.105

6

NYNJPAWeather

HYA

1

0.067

7

wxduff

BWI

1

0.063

8

dmcguriman

 

0

0.000

8

TQ

 

0

0.000

8

ilibov

 

0

0.000

8

herb@maws

 

0

0.000

8

shanabe

 

0

0.000

 

***********************************

Congratulations to the Winners!

 

***********************************

Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #1 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

 

Consensus forecast best @ CAR…BTV

MAX forecast best @ none

MAX forecast less than observed @ none

MIN forecasts best @ HYA…ALB…BGM…ISP…JFK…ABE…MDT…EWR

MIN forecasts more than observed @ ALB

 

Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

 

*******************************

Verification:

Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins

Rank

Station

Snow

SN:H2O

         2

CAR

    4.80

      14.1

         3

BGR

    4.20

      13.1

         5

PWM

    2.90

      20.7

         4

CON

    3.50

      21.9

         1

BTV

    5.70

      19.0

         8

BOS

    1.00

 

       13

HYA

    0.05

 

         7

ORH

    1.10

 

       12

PVD

    0.30

 

         9

BDR

    0.50

 

         9

BDL

    0.50

 

         6

ALB

    1.70

 

       11

BGM

    0.40

 

 

ISP

        -  

 

 

JFK

        -  

 

 

ABE

        -  

 

 

MDT

        -  

 

 

PHL

        -  

 

 

ACY

        -  

 

       13

EWR

    0.05

 

 

BWI

        -  

 

 

IAD

        -  

 

 

DCA

        -  

 

 

SBY

        -  

 

 

RIC

        -  

 

 

ORF

        -  

 

 

RDU

        -  

 

 

TOT

26.70

      17.8

 

Some SN:H20 ratios could not be computed because of RA / FZRA contamination.

 

*******************************

Storm Notes

 

Surface Analysis

 

5H NHEMI

 

IR

 

 

VIS

 

 

Tele-connections

 

Five-day 5H anomaly height correlations

 

Five-day height error